Africa's Strategic Crossroads: How Trump's Geopolitical Gambits Are Redrawing Investment Horizons

In the volatile geopolitical landscape of Africa, a curious alliance is taking shape. While Western leaders grapple with democratic backsliding and Chinese economic inroads, a remote and disputed corner of the continent—particularly segments of South Africa’s Afrikaner community and resource-rich nations like Morocco and Ethiopia—is quietly aligning with Donald Trump’s "America First" agenda. This shift, driven by transactional economics and ideological realignments, presents both risks and opportunities for investors.

The South African Fault Line: Land, Sanctions, and Hidden Alliances

The collapse of U.S.-South African relations under Trump’s second term has created a paradox. In February 2025, the U.S. cut all aid to South Africa after its government pushed to expropriate land without compensation and aligned with Russia and Iran. Yet, within this tension lies an undercurrent of pro-Trump sentiment.

A segment of South Africa’s Afrikaner minority—disillusioned by land reform and economic stagnation—views Trump’s punitive measures as a lifeline. The administration’s offer to resettle dispossessed Afrikaners in U.S. territories like Puerto Rico has galvanized conservative factions, creating a niche pro-Trump constituency. For investors, this signals a broader trend: geopolitical divides are becoming investment divides.

Morocco: The Abraham Accords’ Resource Powerhouse

Morocco’s pivot to the U.S. under Trump’s first term has paid dividends. The $5 billion investment pledge from the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in 2020, tied to its recognition of Israel, has since expanded into strategic sectors.

Morocco now sits atop Africa’s solar energy boom, with U.S.-backed projects like the Noor Ouarzazate solar plant generating 580 MW of renewable power. Its phosphate reserves—critical for fertilizer and EV battery production—are further entwined with U.S. supply chain strategies.

The DRC’s Cobalt Bonanza: A Geopolitical Battery

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), home to 70% of the world’s cobalt reserves, is ground zero for the U.S.-China minerals war. Trump’s Energy Act of 2020 prioritized securing critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and manganese—key to EV batteries.

U.S. firms like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Cobalt 27 Capital Corp (KOBT) are aggressively expanding in the region. However, instability persists: armed groups in the Kivu provinces and corruption in Kinshasa threaten supply chains. Investors must weigh the DRC’s 12% annual cobalt production growth against geopolitical risks.

Ghana: The Sahel’s Last Democratic Bulwark

Ghana’s strategic position as a U.S. ally in the Gulf of Guinea is under pressure. Al-Qaeda’s encroachment from collapsing Burkina Faso has forced the U.S. to bolster Ghana’s military—a move that aligns with Trump’s counterterrorism agenda.

Ghana’s stability contrasts with its neighbors, making it a gateway for U.S. investments in critical minerals and logistics. The Lobito Corridor project, linking Angola’s ports to the DRC’s mines, is a $5 billion U.S.-backed venture that could rival China’s rival route through Tanzania.

The AGOA Crossroads: Trade as a Weapon

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), expiring in 2025, is now a geopolitical battleground. While Trump’s team threatens to exclude South Africa over its foreign policy choices, other AGOA beneficiaries—like Kenya and Ethiopia—are lobbying for renewal.

Renewal could unlock $20 billion in new trade flows, favoring sectors like textiles and energy. But exclusion of South Africa could push its critical minerals (platinum, chrome) into Chinese hands, a risk for U.S. EV manufacturers.

Conclusion: Navigating the Trump-Africa Divide

The regions cheering Trump—Afrikaner enclaves, Morocco, and cobalt-rich states—are betting on transactional alliances. Investors should focus on three pillars:
1. Critical minerals: The DRC’s cobalt and Morocco’s phosphate offer high-growth, high-risk plays. Monitor stock performance of FCX and OCP Group.
2. Strategic infrastructure: The Lobito Corridor and U.S.-backed solar projects in Morocco present long-term opportunities.
3. Geopolitical binaries: Avoid South African assets tied to land reform (e.g., Growthpoint Properties) while backing Ghanaian logistics firms (e.g., Ghana Ports and Harbors Authority).

The data is clear: U.S.-Africa trade has grown by 18% since 2020, but 60% of that is concentrated in minerals and tech. Investors ignoring the Trump-aligned regions risk missing a tectonic shift—one where Africa’s disputed corners are now frontiers of great-power competition.

As the AGOA deadline looms, the choice is stark: side with the autocrats or the pragmatists. The markets will reward those who pick wisely.