Aflac Shares Drop 1.28 as $270M Volume Ranks 468th Amid Profit Pressures

Aflac (AFL) closed August 1 down 1.28% with $270 million in trading volume, ranking 468th in market activity. The insurance insurer is set to report Q2 2025 earnings on August 5, with consensus estimates pointing to $1.71 per share on $4.43 billion in revenue—a 6.6% year-over-year decline in EPS and 13.7% lower revenue. Full-year 2025 projections indicate a 6.4% EPS drop to $6.75 and 0.9% revenue contraction to $17.68 billion.

Analysts highlight mixed performance across Aflac’s segments. U.S. operations show a 3.3% revenue increase driven by higher premiums, while Japan faces a 2.6% decline. Net investment income is expected to fall 17.2% year-over-year. Benefit-to-premium ratios improved in the U.S. (47.8 vs. 46.7) but declined in Japan (65.3 vs. 66.9). Pre-tax adjusted earnings from both U.S. and Japan segments are projected to fall 8.1% and 13.2%, respectively.

Peer performance in the insurance sector reveals divergent outcomes. Marsh & McLennan exceeded estimates by 2.3% on strong Risk & Insurance Services growth, while Aon beat by 2.7% due to new business retention. AMERISAFE underperformed by 3.6%, impacted by weaker underwriting and investment income. These results underscore sector-wide challenges balancing premium growth with cost pressures.

Backtesting of a volume-based strategy showed a 166.71% return from 2022 to present, significantly outperforming the 29.18% benchmark. This liquidity-driven approach generated 137.53% excess returns, highlighting the market’s responsiveness to volume surges and momentum in liquid assets. Companies like Amphenol and Xylem exemplify this trend through strong volume spikes coinciding with positive earnings and dividend announcements.