Why Affirm’s Winter Sports Play Signals a New Era for BNPL

The rise of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has been nothing short of transformative, but its true potential lies in markets where recurring, seasonal spending meets discretionary desire. Enter Affirm (AFRM), which has just unlocked a new frontier with its partnership with Cali Pass—a move that could redefine how consumers fund their winter sports adventures. This alliance isn’t just about skis and snowboards; it’s a masterstroke in Affirm’s strategy to dominate the $100 billion BNPL market by targeting recurring, high-value purchases. Here’s why investors should pay close attention.

The Cali Pass-Affirm Partnership: A Blueprint for Seasonal Flexibility

The collaboration, announced May 20, 2025, allows skiers and riders to split the cost of season passes—often over $700—into interest-free biweekly payments or 12-month installments at 15% APR. For example, a $729 Adult Cali Pass can be paid over 12 months for just $60.58/month. Crucially, this flexibility extends beyond one-time purchases: Cali Pass holders can even defer unused passes to the following season with a $50 fee, a feature that reduces risk and locks in recurring revenue for Affirm.

This model directly addresses a pain point for discretionary spenders: winter sports enthusiasts often delay purchasing season passes due to upfront costs. By enabling monthly or biweekly payments, Affirm turns a $700 expense into a manageable $60/month, while capturing a steady stream of fees from Cali Pass sales. The partnership also integrates Affirm’s QR code system into resorts’ physical stores, ensuring accessibility whether customers shop online or on-site.

Leveraging Affirm’s Retail Ecosystem: 358,000 Partners and Counting

Cali Pass joins Affirm’s sprawling network of over 358,000 partners, including giants like Amazon and Costco. But what sets this deal apart is its focus on seasonal, recurring revenue cycles. Unlike a one-time mattress or appliance purchase, winter sports spending repeats annually, creating a predictable revenue stream for Affirm. The parallels to recent partnerships—such as with Costco (which expanded Affirm’s reach into bulk buying) and Mattress Firm (targeting home goods)—are clear: Affirm is methodically targeting industries where high-value, discretionary purchases occur regularly.

Q3 Financials: A Strong Foundation for Expansion

Affirm’s Q3 fiscal 2025 results underscore its momentum. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew to $9.2 billion, with management guiding for $35.7–36 billion in FY2025 GMV. Repeat customer transactions rose 18% year-over-year, a testament to Affirm’s sticky ecosystem. The Cali Pass deal aligns with these trends, as it taps into a niche market with high customer loyalty—ski resorts often see the same passholders returning year after year.

Moreover, Affirm’s AdaptAI tool, which dynamically adjusts APR based on creditworthiness, ensures competitive pricing. For example, a customer with strong credit might qualify for 0% APR on a $700 pass, while others pay a market-driven rate. This precision pricing model maximizes margins while keeping plans affordable.

The Broader BNPL Landscape: Affirm’s Strategic Edge

The BNPL sector is heating up, with companies like Afterpay and Klarna vying for dominance. Yet Affirm’s focus on transparency—no hidden fees, upfront APR disclosures—differentiates it. The Cali Pass partnership amplifies this advantage in a market where trust is currency. Meanwhile, competitors are still grappling with regulation and profitability; Affirm’s ecosystem scale and recurring revenue streams position it to capitalize on these challenges.

Bullish Thesis: Why AFRM is a Buy Now, Pay Later Leader

Affirm’s move into seasonal markets isn’t just opportunistic—it’s a strategic play to corner recurring revenue cycles. With Cali Pass, Affirm secures a beachhead in the $12 billion winter sports industry, where discretionary spending peaks annually. The partnership’s Pass Holder Assurance adds a retention layer, reducing churn and ensuring repeat customers.

Looking ahead, Affirm’s model could expand to other seasonal markets: think summer camp fees, concert tickets, or outdoor gear purchases. The data backs this thesis:

• Market Penetration: Affirm’s 358,000 partners represent just 2% of U.S. retailers, leaving ample room to grow.
• Valuation: At $10 billion market cap, Affirm trades at a fraction of its peers (e.g., Afterpay’s $34B valuation), despite its robust GMV growth.
• Regulatory Resilience: Affirm’s transparency-first approach mitigates regulatory risks better than opaque BNPL peers.

Final Call: Time to Load Up on AFRM

Affirm’s Cali Pass partnership isn’t a gimmick—it’s a blueprint for monetizing recurring, high-value spending cycles. With Q3 results showing momentum and a sector poised for explosive growth, now is the time to position in AFRM. The stock’s recent dip post-earnings creates a buying opportunity, while its ecosystem scale and innovation (like AdaptAI) ensure dominance in BNPL’s next phase.

Investors who act now will be skiing the slopes of future gains.