Affirm Stock Plunges 8.2% As Bearish Signals Converge Below Key $90 Resistance

Candlestick Theory
Affirm Holdings exhibits notable bearish candlestick patterns, particularly the recent two-day sequence where the stock closed at $82.73 (-8.20%) and $90.12 (-2.23%), forming a bearish engulfing pattern near the $90-92 resistance zone. This aligns with the $89.84–$92.56 range rejection on September 19, establishing $90 as a critical resistance. Support emerges at $82.54 (September 23 low), mirroring the August consolidation band near $79–$82. A breach below $82 risks testing the 200-day moving average at approximately $58.
Moving Average Theory
The stock currently trades below all key moving averages (50-day: ~$76, 100-day: ~$64, 200-day: ~$58), confirming a bearish trend structure. Recent price action saw the 50-day MA cap rebounds in mid-September, while the 100-day/200-day MAs now serve as dynamic resistance. The sustained trading below these averages signals persistent downward momentum, though oversold conditions may prompt consolidation near $82.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover below the signal line, with the histogram deepening into negative territory since September 11, reinforcing downward acceleration. KDJ oscillators (K: 18, D: 24, J: 6) are deeply oversold (K/J < 20), suggesting potential short-term exhaustion. However, MACD’s lack of bullish divergence indicates unconfirmed reversal signals, aligning with the prevailing downtrend.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day) contracted sharply during the $89–$92 consolidation (September 18–19), preceding the breakdown to $82.73. Price now hugs the lower band (currently ~$80), reflecting elevated selling pressure. Band expansion below $83 suggests continued volatility, with the lower band acting as minor support. A close above the middle band (~$84) is needed to stabilize momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days consistently feature higher volume than up days, including the 7.64% surge on September 15 (9.0M shares) and the 10.25% two-day decline (7.65M shares). This distribution pattern signals institutional selling. The absence of high-volume accumulation near $82 support questions sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 34 approaches oversold territory but lacks bullish divergence, as lower lows in price align with lower RSI readings. While oversold (RSI < 30) may enable consolidation, sustained readings below 40 reflect dominant bearish momentum. Historically, reversals require RSI recovery above 50, which remains elusive.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $39.36 (October 4, 2024) and high of $100 (August 29, 2025), key Fibonacci levels are identified. The 50% retracement ($69.68) and 38.2% ($77.92) were breached decisively. Current price tests the 61.8% level ($62.44), with the 78.6% retracement ($54.32) acting as the next major support. The $90–$92 resistance aligns with the 23.6% retracement zone.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals is evident: resistance at $90 (psychological, Fibonacci, and moving average), MACD/KDJ oversold but lacking reversals, and high-volume selling. A critical divergence exists between KDJ’s oversold reading and MACD’s sustained bearishness, suggesting conflicting short- versus medium-term momentum. The breakdown below $90 invalidates the prior ascending triangle pattern, targeting $72–$75 without recovery above $85.
Conclusion
Affirm Holdings faces entrenched bearish pressure below all key moving averages, with $90–$92 acting as formidable resistance. While oversold conditions (KDJ, RSI) could support consolidation near $82, volume patterns and MACD confirm distribution. A close below $82 targets the 200-day MA ($58) and Fibonacci 78.6% retracement ($54.32). For trend reversal, reconquering $87.50 (daily closes) and the 50-day MA (~$76) is essential. Probabilistically, downside risks prevail absent bullish volume confirmation.