Affirm Soars 10.59% to $88.46 Amid Technical Breakout Signals

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) rallied 10.59% on August 29, 2025, closing at $88.46 after trading between $86.76 and $100, extending its two-day gain to 14.01%. This high-volatility session established a critical technical roadmap as follows:
Candlestick Theory
The August 29 candle shows a pronounced upper shadow (closing $11.54 below its high), indicating rejection at the psychological $100 resistance. This level now serves as a major technical barrier. Support emerges at $86.76 (the day's low) and $78 (August 28 low), with the latter reinforced by a consolidation base from mid-August. The long wick signals distribution near triple digits, warranting vigilance for reversal patterns if price retests this zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($73.20) maintains an upward trajectory above the 100-day ($67.80) and 200-day ($58.10) averages, confirming the primary bull trend. Recent price action has diverged sharply from these moving averages, with Friday’s close sitting 21% above the 50-day MA. Such extended deviations historically precede either consolidation to allow MAs to catch up or a mean-reversion pullback. The 200-day MA’s consistent ascent since April 2025 provides structural support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD registers a bullish crossover with histogram bars expanding, though both lines (0.91 signal, 0.78 MACD) are approaching overbought territory. KDJ reflects overextension with K-line (89) and D-line (84) near 12-month highs. While momentum favors bulls, the KDJ’s proximity to overbought thresholds suggests waning incremental upside without consolidation. Bearish divergence would emerge on any price retreat unaccompanied by corresponding KDJ declines.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as price pierced the upper Bollinger Band ($83.20) on August 29 – a rarity occurring only three times in the past year. Bandwidth expanded 78% this week, typical of climax moves. Reversion toward the 20-day midline ($77.50) appears probable. The +2σ band ($95.30) now marks dynamic resistance, while the lower band ($59.50) anchors key long-term support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Friday’s surge occurred on 43.1M shares traded – the highest volume since May and 208% above the 30-day average. This confirms institutional participation in the breakout. However, the close below VWAP ($91.50) and failure to hold above $90 raises questions about sustainability. Volume must persist above 20M/day to validate further upside; deterioration below this threshold would undermine the rally’s integrity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (74) entered overbought territory for the first time since February. Historically, readings above 70 preceded pullbacks of 8-12% within 10 sessions during this bull cycle. While momentum signals aren’t immediate sell triggers, the current RSI coupled with extended price-MA separation heightens near-term reversion risk. A decisive break below 65 RSI would signal waning bullish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the July 25 low ($65.68) and August 29 high ($100) reveals critical thresholds: the 38.2% retracement at $86.90 nearly aligns with Friday’s low, making it a pivotal support. A breakdown targets $82.84 (50%) and $78.78 (61.8%). Confluence exists at $84.50 (50% retracement + 20-day MA) – a potential accumulation zone if tested. The 23.6% level ($91.90) now acts as immediate resistance.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence: Multiple indicators flag $86-87 as critical support (August 29 low + 38.2% Fib + upper Bollinger Band rejection). Volume and volatility metrics agree on the need for consolidation.
Divergence: While MACD and price made new highs, RSI and KDJ failed to surpass their February peaks – a bearish divergence suggesting weakening momentum.
Forward Outlook: Technicals lean bullish structurally but indicate overextended conditions short-term. A pullback toward $84.50-86.90 (confluence zone) would present a higher-probability entry opportunity, provided volume sustains above 20M shares and $78 support holds.