Affirm Shares Dip 3.65% as $0.44B Volume Ranks 252nd Amid Earnings Surge and Technical Jitters

Market Snapshot

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) closed 2025-11-14 with a 3.65% decline in share price, following a 21.93% drop in trading volume to $0.44 billion—the 252nd highest volume on the day. The stock’s performance reflects heightened short-term volatility, with intraday price swings between $69.62 and $73.48. While the company’s fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report drove a 15.4% surge in shares since November 6, the recent decline underscores ongoing market caution amid mixed technical indicators and elevated short-term selling pressure.

Key Drivers

Affirm’s fiscal Q1 2026 earnings results, announced on November 6, served as a primary catalyst for recent price movements. The company reported net income of $80.7 million and GAAP EPS of $0.23, surpassing both Wall Street and internal forecasts. Revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $933 million, driven by a 42% increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) to $10.8 billion and a 30% rise in active merchants to 419,000. These metrics highlight Affirm’s expanding footprint in the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) sector, bolstered by strategic partnerships, including a five-year extension with Amazon and growth in Affirm Card membership to 500,000. However, the stock’s post-earnings rally has since stalled, with analysts noting that while operational momentum is strong, market sentiment remains cautious due to technical headwinds.

Technical indicators suggest a tug-of-war between short-term bearish pressure and long-term support. AFRM’s price closed at $71.59, below its 20-day ($72.17) and 50-day ($78.44) moving averages but above the 200-day ($64.24) average. Oscillators such as RSI (36.68), Stochastic RSI (0.00), and CCI (–161.71) signal oversold conditions, while the MACD remains negative, indicating lingering sell-side dominance. Analysts at Traders Union note that the stock’s upward gap open from $65.96 to $69.62 and subsequent consolidation near the $73.48 intraday high suggest high volatility but lack of clear directional strength. This dynamic has led to mixed signals: while weekly trend indicators lean bullish, daily momentum remains bearish, creating uncertainty for traders.

The stock’s volatility is further amplified by divergences in momentum and price action. For instance, a 3% morning rally following the earnings report subsided to a 3.7% gain by the close, reflecting uneven investor confidence. Zacks Investment Research attributes this to Affirm’s history of 56 price swings exceeding 5% in the past year, with today’s move deemed “meaningful but not transformative.” Additionally, Whale Rock Capital Management’s recent exit from AFRM in its Q3 portfolio rebalancing, as disclosed in a 13F filing, may have contributed to short-term selling pressure. Despite these headwinds, the company’s adjusted operating margin expanded to 28.3% in Q1 2026, and its gross merchandise volume guidance for fiscal 2026 now exceeds $47.5 billion, underscoring long-term growth potential.

Analysts caution that AFRM’s near-term outlook hinges on clearing key resistance levels. Traders Union expert Anton Kharitonov projects a consolidation range of $72.22 to $73.27 for the coming week, with a bullish breakout above $73.27 potentially unlocking further gains. However, a breakdown below $72.22 could reignite selling pressure toward the $70 level. The stock’s beta of 3.57 and high debt-to-equity ratio (2.40) further amplify its sensitivity to broader market swings, particularly in a volatile macroeconomic environment. While Affirm’s fundamentals remain robust—evidenced by its 24.7% year-to-date total return—investors are advised to monitor technical signals and management’s ability to sustain earnings momentum in the face of rising credit losses and operating expenses.