Affirm Rises 3.76% Amid Technical Signals Of Tentative Support At $82

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) advanced 3.76% in the latest session, closing at $85.31 on elevated volume. The following technical analysis evaluates AFRM's price dynamics using multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a volatile pattern. The August 29th session formed a shooting star candle with a $100 high and $88.46 close, indicating rejection near triple-digit resistance. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern on September 2nd (high $86.22, close $82.22), confirming selling pressure. The subsequent 3.76% recovery on September 3rd suggests tentative support near $82. Key resistance remains at $85.50-$86.00, while the August 28th low of $78 establishes a critical support zone. The consolidation between $78 and $86 reflects indecision after the sharp August rally.
Moving Average Theory
Shorter-term moving averages exhibit tension: the 50-day MA (currently ~$68) maintains upward slope while the 100-day MA (~$62) and 200-day MA (~$55) confirm the primary uptrend. However, price currently trades below the 10-day EMA ($84.50), reflecting near-term weakness. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs suggests potential consolidation, with sustained trade above $85 needed to reactivate bullish momentum. Golden crosses persist across all major periods, maintaining the structural bull trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bearish divergence with the histogram trending negatively despite recent sideways price action. The signal line crossover into negative territory indicates weakening momentum. Meanwhile, KDJ registers a bullish crossover (K:42/D:38) from oversold territory, creating conflicting signals. While KDJ suggests short-term rebound potential, MACD warns of continued consolidation. The 25% stochastic oscillator reading implies limited downside exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident with bandwidth narrowing to 12% from 18% in August. Price oscillating near the middle band ($83) reflects equilibrium after the band expansion during the August rally. The tightening pattern typically precedes directional resolution, with breaks above $85.50 or below $81 likely triggering volatility expansion. The absence of band touches since August 29th reduces overbought/oversold reliability.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns emerged on down days: September 2nd's 7.05% decline occurred on 13.9M shares (150% above 30-day avg), confirming selling conviction. Conversely, the September 3rd rally traded 21% below average volume, questioning sustainability. The August 29th breakout to $100 occurred on 43.2M shares (highest annual volume), establishing $90-$100 as formidable resistance. Weak volume during recovery attempts suggests cautious participation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 54 remains neutral, recovering from oversold conditions (recent low: 42). While the RSI bounce aligns with price recovery, its failure to exceed 60 during the September 3rd advance indicates tepid momentum. Historical divergences warrant monitoring—notably when prices hit $100 with RSI at 78 (moderate overbought) versus the August lows near $62 with RSI at 35 (mild oversold). No extreme readings currently present.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June low ($51.35) and August high ($100), key Fibonacci levels emerge: 38.2% retracement at $80.15 aligns with the September 1st bounce, while the 50% level ($75.68) coincides with the August consolidation zone. The 61.8% retracement ($71.20) marks critical long-term support. Current price action shows acceptance above the 38.2% level, with $85.50 (23.6% retracement) acting as immediate resistance.
Confluence & Divergence
Significant confluence exists at $85.50-$86.00, where Bollinger Band resistance, the August swing high, and the 23.6% Fibonacci level converge. A decisive break above this zone on expanding volume would confirm bullish resolution. Notable divergence persists between MACD’s bearish momentum reading and KDJ’s oversold rebound signal. Volume divergence during recovery attempts remains the primary concern for upside sustainability. The probabilistic outlook suggests range-bound action between $78-$86 until either Bollinger Band expansion or volume confirmation emerges.