Affirm Holdings Surges 4.04% to $77.43 as Technical Indicators Flash Bullish Signals

Candlestick Theory
Affirm Holdings exhibits bullish short-term momentum, closing at $77.43 (4.04% gain) on October 2, 2025, following a 1.83% advance on October 1. This two-day rally formed consecutive white candlesticks, breaching the immediate resistance near $76.56 (September 29 high). The price action reversed sharply from the $73.65 low on October 2, suggesting strong intraday demand. Key resistance is established at the September 26 peak of $78.75, while support lies at $73.40 (October 1 low) and the psychological $70 level. A bearish engulfing pattern on September 23–24 signaled earlier weakness, but the recent recovery indicates renewed buying interest.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) currently slopes upward near $75.20, acting as dynamic support during the September pullback. More significantly, the 100-day MA ($68.50) and 200-day MA ($60.80) both trend higher, confirming a long-term bullish bias. The October 2 close at $77.43 sits above all three MAs, signaling robust near-term momentum. A bullish crossover occurred in mid-September when the 50-day MA surged above the 100-day MA. Confluence exists at $75, where the 50-day MA aligns with the September 30 swing low, creating a strong support zone.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish histogram expansion since October 1, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This momentum shift followed a period of consolidation below the zero line in late September. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (9,3,3) exited oversold territory (K=35, D=32, J=41 on September 30) and now trends toward overbought (K=68, D=59, J=86). The K-line’s sharp ascent above the D-line supports near-term bullishness. However, the J-line at 86 nears overbought levels, warranting caution for a potential pullback if divergence emerges.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day) contracted sharply in late September, reflecting reduced volatility before the current breakout. The October 2 close pierced the upper band ($76.80), typically indicating overextension. This expansion aligns with the 5.95% two-day surge, suggesting strong directional momentum. Price now trades near the upper band, implying continued bullish sentiment if sustained. The middle band (20-day MA) at $74.40 serves as immediate support, with a close below potentially signaling exhaustion.
Volume-Price Relationship
The October 2 rally occurred on 6.72M shares – below the 8.90M volume from October 1 but above the 50-day average. This divergence suggests cautious participation in the breakout. Notably, the September 30 sell-off (-4.55%) saw heavy volume (12.01M shares), confirming distribution. The August 29 surge (+10.59%) on record volume (43.19M shares) established a high-conviction bottom at $86.76. Recent volume patterns lack the climactic intensity needed to validate a major breakout, requiring confirmation via volume expansion above 10M shares.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from 42 (mildly oversold) on September 30 to 63 on October 2, reflecting improving momentum but remaining below overbought thresholds. This positioning allows room for further upside before warning signals emerge. Notably, the RSI has not exceeded 70 since early September, preventing exhaustion signals. The indicator’s higher low on September 30 versus its August 24 trough created bullish divergence, foreshadowing the current rebound.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the August 26 trough ($77.95) and September 19 peak ($92.18), key retracement levels emerge. The 61.8% retracement at $83.50 held as resistance on September 26, while the 50% level at $85.05 capped rallies in late September. The recent recovery surpassed the 38.2% retracement ($79.45), turning it into support. A close above the 23.6% level ($88.10) is needed to confirm a full trend reversal. Confluence exists at $78.00 (78.6% retracement and September 23 low), now serving as a critical support floor.
Confluence and Divergences
Significant confluence appears at $73–75, where the 50-day MA, September 30 low, and Bollinger mid-band converge, creating a high-probability bounce zone. The RSI/price divergence in late September provided an early reversal signal. However, the October 2 breakout lacks robust volume confirmation – a divergence that may limit upside if unresolved. The simultaneous bullish MACD crossover, KDJ ascent, and RSI recovery support near-term strength, but the Bollinger Band expansion and KDJ near-overbought readings advise against chasing the rally aggressively. Affirm Holdings requires a volume-backed close above $78.75 to target the $81–84 resistance band.