Affirm Holdings Drops 3.12% as Bearish Signals Intensify Amid Key Support Test

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) declined 3.12% to close at $66.75 in the latest session, marking two consecutive days of losses totaling 3.92%. This movement occurred within a broader context of volatile price action over the past year, ranging from the $20s (mid-2024) to a peak of $82.52 (February 2025). The following technical analysis examines key indicators and their confluence.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns show bearish signals. The July 21 session formed a long upper-wick candle with a high of $71.18 and close near the low at $66.75, indicating strong rejection at higher levels. This follows a bearish engulfing pattern on July 11, where a 5.58% down day erased the prior three sessions’ gains. Key support now rests at $66.73–$66.75 (July 21 low/close), with a breach potentially targeting the $64.05–$64.72 zone (mid-July lows). Resistance is evident at $69.47–$70.40 (July 17–18 highs), reinforced by the psychological $70 level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) near $60 provides intermediate-term support, while the 100-day and 200-day MAs near $55 and $48, respectively, confirm the primary uptrend. However, the price currently trades below the 20-day MA (~$68.30), signaling short-term bearish momentum. A death cross is not imminent, but failure to reclaim the 20-day MA may accelerate downside pressure. Confluence exists at $60–$62 (50-day MA + mid-June consolidation zone), which could attract buyers if tested.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line on July 21, indicating building bearish momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (14-period) shows the %K line at 35 and %D line at 48, down from overbought levels (>80) in early July. While not yet oversold, the KDJ’s downward trajectory aligns with MACD’s bearish crossover. This confluence suggests near-term downside continuation, though a reversal signal would require KDJ crossing above 20.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are expanding after a contraction in late June, reflecting increasing volatility. Price is testing the lower band (~$66.50), typically a support area. However, the close below the 20-day moving average (mid-band) and two consecutive lower highs/lowers lows strengthen the bearish case. A sustained break below the lower band could trigger accelerated selling, while a rebound may retest $68.50–$69 (mid-band resistance).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate bearish momentum. The July 21 decline saw 4.63M shares traded—above the 30-day average—indicating conviction behind the move. Notably, the July 11 selloff (-5.58%) occurred on 7.62M volume (year’s 3rd highest), confirming distribution. Conversely, the July 17 rally (+3.36%) had strong volume (7.52M), but subsequent down days lacked equivalent buying interest. This divergence implies weak accumulation, undermining recovery attempts.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has cooled from 67 on July 17 to 43 currently, reflecting easing bullish momentum. It remains above oversold territory (>30), avoiding an immediate reversal signal. However, RSI’s lower-high pattern since February diverges from the stock’s higher price peaks, warning of underlying trend weakness. A drop below 40 would reinforce bearish control, while recovery above 50 is needed to neutralize near-term pressure.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $32.32 (April 7, 2025) and high of $71.18 (July 21, 2025), key Fibonacci levels are $66.30 (23.6% retracement), $63.35 (38.2%), and $60.40 (50%). The current price is testing the 23.6% level ($66.30). A decisive breakdown may target $63.35–$64.05 (38.2% retracement + July 14–15 lows). This zone aligns with Bollinger Band support, creating a high-probability bounce area if reached.
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Confluence of bearish signals is evident: MACD/KDJ momentum downturns, volume-supported selloffs, and RSI cooling. The $66.30–$66.75 support (Fibonacci 23.6% + July 21 low) is pivotal—breaching this likely triggers a slide toward $63.35–$64.05. Bullish divergence is absent; however, a bullish reversal would require reclaiming $69.47–$70.40 (resistance) alongside MACD reversal and rising volume. The long-term uptrend remains intact (supported by 200-day MA), but near-term risk skews downward until oversold conditions or volume-supported base-building emerges.
Overall, Affirm Holdings faces intensified selling pressure near-term, with key support at $66.30–$66.75. Probabilistically, a breakdown here favors testing mid-$63s, while stabilization above $67.50 could signal consolidation. Long-term investors may find entries near $60–$62 (50-day MA + Fibonacci 50%), though discretion is advised until volume confirms accumulation.