AEVOBTC Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• AEVOBTC edged higher over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour high.
• Strong volume surges coincided with key resistance breakouts.
• Momentum indicators suggest potential overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Band expansion signals increased volatility.
• Price consolidation near 9.8e-07 raises potential for a near-term test of prior resistance.

Aevo/Bitcoin (AEVOBTC) traded in a range between 9.3e-07 and 9.9e-07 over the last 24 hours, opening at 9.4e-07 (12:00 ET − 1) and closing at 9.8e-07 (12:00 ET) on 2025-10-03. Total volume traded was approximately 252,894.48 AEVO, while notional turnover amounted to roughly $0.236 (assuming AEVO price in USD).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bullish bias from 19:45 to 20:45 ET, where price moved from 9.6e-07 to 9.8e-07. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 05:45 ET, confirming a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. The formation of a small doji at 21:30 ET suggested indecision among traders ahead of a key breakout. Key support levels appear to be forming around 9.5e-07 and 9.3e-07, with resistance at 9.8e-07 currently holding.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is crossing above the 100- and 200-period MAs, signaling a potential longer-term trend shift to the upside. These crossovers suggest that the pair could be in the early stages of a sustained bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bullish divergence with price at 08:00 and 08:45 ET, reinforcing the idea of a short-term bottoming process. RSI peaked at 73 at 06:15 ET and has since pulled back to 58, indicating moderate strength without yet reaching overbought territory. However, the RSI’s behavior suggests a potential pullback may be looming if volume does not support further buying.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply between 05:00 and 06:45 ET, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching as high as 9.9e-07. Price remained inside the bands for most of the period but touched the upper band during the 06:15 and 06:45 ET candles. This suggests that while the market is active, it remains within defined volatility bounds, which may tighten again in the next 24 hours if trading activity stabilizes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 05:00, 05:45, and 06:45 ET, coinciding with price highs. These spikes suggest strong buying pressure during the breakout phase. Turnover also increased in line with volume, supporting the idea that the move to 9.9e-07 was backed by liquidity. Divergence in volume was observed at 21:45 and 00:00 ET, where price continued to fall but volume waned, suggesting a lack of follow-through in the downward leg.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 9.3e-07 to 9.9e-07, the 50% retracement level is at 9.6e-07. The 61.8% level is at 9.7e-07, and the 78.6% level at 9.8e-07. The price has tested and consolidated near 9.8e-07, raising the possibility of a pullback toward the 61.8% level. A break above 9.8e-07 could target 9.9e-07 for a test of the 78.6% level, where further resistance is expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing candlestick and a MACD crossover above zero. Stop-loss is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent bearish leg. Given the recent formation of a bullish engulfing pattern and the 50-period MA being above price, this condition has been met. If this strategy is applied to AEVOBTC, it could have yielded a long entry around 05:45 ET, with a potential target at 9.8e-07 and a stop at 9.6e-07. The strategy’s success would depend on continued volume support and the RSI not entering overbought territory too soon.