AEVA Plunges 8.15%: What's Behind the Sudden Slide?

Summary
• Aeva Technologies (AEVA) trades at $18.25, down 8.15% from its previous close of $19.87
• Intraday range spans $17.46 to $19.48, with turnover hitting 3.2 million shares
• CEO Soroush Salehian Dardashti sold 488,160 shares ($6.3M) pre-market
• RSI at 75.74 (overbought) and MACD histogram at 0.56 (bullish divergence) signal mixed technicals

Today’s sharp selloff in AEVA defies its recent rally on NVIDIA partnership news. While the stock opened near $19.48, a rapid descent to $17.46 suggests profit-taking and short-term skepticism. The CEO’s massive insider sale, coupled with elevated RSI and divergent MACD, points to a critical inflection point ahead of its Needham conference appearance.

Insider Selling Sparks Investor Anxiety
The 8.15% intraday plunge in AEVA is directly tied to a wave of insider selling. CEO Soroush Salehian Dardashti offloaded 488,160 shares ($6.3M) pre-market, followed by CFO’s $157K in sales and CTO Mina Rezk’s 321,723-share dump. This coordinated exit by top executives signals a lack of conviction in the stock’s near-term trajectory, despite recent milestones like the NVIDIA 4D LiDAR integration. The market is interpreting these sales as a bearish signal, especially as the stock trades near its 52-week low of $2.52. While the company’s partnership with NVIDIA and LG Innotek for 4D LiDAR sensors generated 31% post-announcement gains in early January, the recent selling pressure suggests investors are reassessing the sustainability of these growth narratives.

Semiconductor Sector Weighed by Mixed Signals
The broader semiconductor sector is under pressure, with Intel (INTC) down 1.95% as AI chip demand volatility and geopolitical tensions weigh. While AEVA’s 8.15% drop outpaces the sector’s average decline, its insider selling and overbought RSI (75.74) highlight unique vulnerabilities. The sector’s $93B 2024 valuation and projected $224B 2033 growth remain intact, but AEVA’s execution risks—particularly its 2027 production timeline for the Global Top 10 OEM—make it a high-beta play. The recent $15M–$18M 2025 revenue guidance, while ambitious, faces scrutiny as the stock trades at a -6.85 P/E ratio.

Bearish Options and ETF Alternatives for Volatile AEVA
• 200-day MA: $15.95 (above) | 30-day MA: $14.23 (below) | RSI: 75.74 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.98 (bullish) | Bollinger Bands: $10.67–$18.72 (current price at 18.25)
• Support/Resistance: 13.19–14.12 (30D) | 13.48–14.12 (200D)

AEVA’s technicals suggest a volatile pivot point. The overbought RSI and divergent MACD histogram (0.56) indicate potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. Key levels to watch: the 200-day MA at $15.95 and the lower Bollinger Band at $10.67. While the stock’s 70–100% 2025 revenue growth is compelling, the March 2026 earnings report will be critical for validating execution.

Top Options Picks:
• AEVA20260116P17.5 (Put): Strike $17.50, Expiry 1/16, IV 138.82%, Delta -0.36, Gamma 0.126, Turnover $30,895
• AEVA20260220P17.5 (Put): Strike $17.50, Expiry 2/20, IV 119.78%, Delta -0.37, Gamma 0.052, Turnover $21,595

AEVA20260116P17.5 offers 22.87% leverage with a -0.36 delta, ideal for a 5% downside scenario (targeting $17.34). The 138.82% IV and 0.126 gamma ensure sensitivity to price swings. AEVA20260220P17.5 provides a longer-term bearish play with 7.65% leverage and 0.052 gamma, suitable for a 10% drop to $16.43. Both options have high turnover, ensuring liquidity.

Payoff Estimation: At a 5% downside (ST = $17.34), AEVA20260116P17.5 yields $0.16 per contract (17.50–17.34). For AEVA20260220P17.5, the same scenario nets $0.16. These contracts are optimal for aggressive short-term bearish bets.

Action Alert: If $17.50 breaks, AEVA20260116P17.5 offers immediate downside capture. For a longer play, AEVA20260220P17.5 balances time decay (theta -0.0247) with gamma sensitivity.

Backtest Aeva Technologies Stock Performance
The strategy of buying AEVA after an intraday drop of at least 0.8% resulted in a total return of -23.46% and an annualized return of 29.20% from 2022 to the present day. The strategy had a maximum draw-down of 94.18%, indicating high risk relative to the reward. Although there were some large rebounds that positively impacted the annualized return, the overall performance was poor due to the high draw-downs, which suggests the need for stricter exit rules or additional filters before deploying this strategy in real-world trading.

AEVA’s Volatility: A Crucible for Strategy
AEVA’s 8.15% drop underscores the stock’s high-risk, high-reward profile. While the NVIDIA partnership and 4D LiDAR roadmap remain compelling, insider selling and overbought RSI signal near-term caution. The March 2026 earnings report and 2027 production timeline for the Global Top 10 OEM will be pivotal. Investors should monitor the $17.50 strike as a critical support level. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC)’s -1.95% decline highlights semiconductor sector fragility. For AEVA, the path forward hinges on execution—both in production and in maintaining investor confidence. Act now: Short-term bears should target AEVA20260116P17.5, while longer-term players may consider AEVA20260220P17.5. Watch for a breakdown below $17.50 or a rebound above the 200-day MA at $15.95.