AEURUSDT Market Overview: Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether

Summary
• Price opened at 1.1825, hit 1.1995 high, 1.1791 low, and closed at 1.1862.
• Momentum shifted mid-session, with overbought RSI and bearish divergence flagged.
• Volatility expanded during the 05:15–06:45 ET window, coinciding with a key breakout.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether’s AEURUSDT pair opened at 1.1825 and closed at 1.1862 within the 24-hour window, reaching a high of 1.1995 and a low of 1.1791. Total volume traded was 18,517.8 units, with turnover estimated at 21,855.1 USD. The pair experienced a broad range of price swings, driven by sharp volume surges in the early hours of the morning.

Structure & Formations
Price action revealed multiple key turning points throughout the day. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 05:15 ET, following a consolidation phase. A bearish inside bar later emerged at 11:45 ET, hinting at short-term reversal potential. The most significant price swing occurred between 05:15 and 06:45 ET, forming a broad-range candlestick that encompassed both the daily high and low.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed during the early hours, forming a bullish crossover that coincided with the breakout to 1.1995. However, the 50SMA began to flatten as the session progressed, suggesting a waning of bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are in a bullish alignment, though the 100DMA is beginning to catch up, indicating a potential correction ahead.

MACD & RSI
The RSI indicator reached overbought levels during the morning surge, peaking at ~75, before retreating sharply toward neutral territory by the late morning, pointing to bearish divergence. The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the session but failed to maintain its positive territory, closing with a bearish crossover. These readings suggest that while the short-term move was strong, the broader trend may be losing steam.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded significantly between 05:15 and 06:45 ET, with the pair breaking out of a narrow band and closing near the upper band. This suggests a high degree of uncertainty in price direction. Later in the session, the bands contracted again, indicating a period of consolidation. Price action has remained within the bands for most of the day, but with a few sharp excursions.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during key turning points, particularly between 05:15 and 07:00 ET, with over 1,400 units traded in that two-hour period alone. Turnover mirrored volume closely, suggesting strong conviction in price moves during the morning session. However, volume declined sharply in the afternoon, especially after 14:30 ET, indicating reduced participation and possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci levels to the morning swing (1.1862–1.1995), the 1.1897 level (61.8%) acted as a key area of support during the afternoon pullback. Earlier in the day, a 38.2% retrace (1.1953) failed to hold, suggesting stronger bearish conviction after that level was tested.

Backtest Hypothesis
To validate the observed momentum shifts, a 2-day-hold backtest could be conducted based on key candlestick patterns and RSI readings. A long entry could be triggered on the morning bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed just below 1.1849. A short entry might follow the bearish divergence in RSI and the formation of the inside bar at 11:45 ET, with a stop above 1.1920. Once the correct ticker symbol is confirmed and RSI data is accessible, we can proceed with testing this hypothesis on historical data.