The Aerospace Aftermarket's Transition: From Recovery to Normalization

The aerospace aftermarket is undergoing a pivotal shift as the industry transitions from post-pandemic recovery to a new normal defined by aging fleets, production bottlenecks, and evolving demand dynamics. For investors, this transition presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly in aviation maintenance, repair, and parts provider sectors. By analyzing the interplay of fleet aging, manufacturer production trajectories, and sustainability-driven refleeting programs, a clear case emerges for recalibrating exposure to companies positioned to capitalize on these structural trends.

Aging Fleets and the MRO Boom

The global commercial aircraft fleet’s average age has surged to 13.4 years in 2025, up from 12.1 years in 2024, signaling a critical inflection point for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) demand [2]. Airlines are operating aircraft for longer periods—often beyond 30 years—due to delays in new aircraft deliveries and supply chain disruptions. This trend has intensified the need for frequent and complex maintenance interventions, driving up demand for MRO services.

The aging fleet is also accelerating the use of Used Serviceable Material (USM), which offers cost savings of 60-80% compared to new OEM parts [1]. Companies like AerSale are leveraging extensive inventories of retired aircraft and engines to meet this demand, positioning themselves as high-margin beneficiaries of the sector’s shift toward cost-conscious solutions [3]. The global MRO market, valued at $94 billion in 2023, is expected to grow further as deferred maintenance on aging fleets comes due [1].

Boeing’s Production Recovery and Supply Chain Strains

Boeing’s production recovery remains a mixed bag. While the 737 MAX production rate has stabilized at 38 aircraft per month in 2025—a key milestone after years of safety concerns and regulatory scrutiny—the rate remains below pre-pandemic levels [4]. The company plans to increase output to 50 aircraft per month by 2026 but faces hurdles, including quality control issues and supply chain bottlenecks [4]. For the 787 Dreamliner, deliveries have risen to seven per month in 2025, up from 14 per month in 2019, but full recovery is not expected until 2028 [1].

These delays have forced airlines to extend the lifespans of older aircraft, indirectly boosting MRO demand. However, Boeing’s struggles highlight the fragility of the supply chain, which continues to impact both new aircraft production and parts availability for maintenance [3]. Investors should monitor Boeing’s ability to resolve quality issues and secure regulatory approvals, as these factors will determine the pace of its recovery and its indirect influence on the aftermarket.

Airbus’s Position and the Refleeting Imperative

Airbus has outpaced Boeing in recent years, delivering 735 aircraft in 2023—an 11% increase over 2022 [1]. However, its A320neo and A220 programs have also faced supply chain constraints, leading to grounded aircraft and capacity reductions for some airlines [3]. Despite these challenges, Airbus’s stronger production capacity has made it a preferred partner for airlines pursuing refleeting programs to meet sustainability targets.

The push for fuel-efficient aircraft has accelerated the retirement of older models, though specific retirement rates for Airbus or Boeing aircraft remain undisclosed in the data [1]. What is clear is that refleeting programs are driving demand for both new aircraft and MRO services. Airlines operating aging fleets require more frequent maintenance while simultaneously investing in newer, more efficient models—a dual dynamic that benefits parts providers and MRO operators with expertise in both legacy and modern aircraft systems.

Strategic Investment Implications

For investors, the aerospace aftermarket’s transition demands a recalibration of exposure toward companies that:
1. Specialize in high-margin MRO services, particularly those leveraging USM to reduce costs for airlines [3].
2. Maintain robust inventories of spare parts, including mechanical control cables and aerostructures, to address supply chain bottlenecks [4].
3. Adapt to shifting demand from new aircraft to maintenance, as production delays force airlines to prioritize operational efficiency over fleet expansion [1].

The aging fleet and production challenges at Boeing and Airbus are structural headwinds that will persist for years. However, these same factors are creating tailwinds for the MRO sector, which is now a critical pillar of the aviation industry’s normalization phase.

Conclusion

The aerospace aftermarket is no longer a secondary player in the aviation sector—it is a linchpin of industry resilience. As airlines navigate the dual pressures of aging fleets and sustainability mandates, the demand for MRO services and cost-effective parts will only intensify. Investors who position themselves in companies adept at managing these dynamics—whether through USM expertise, inventory scale, or strategic partnerships—stand to benefit from a sector poised for long-term growth.

**Source:[1] Aircraft Disassembly and Used Serviceable [https://avitrader.com/2025/04/15/aircraft-disassembly-and-used-serviceable/][2] AerSale Focuses on High-Margin MRO Services to Drive Growth in Aging Aviation Market [https://www.eplaneai.com/it/news/aersale-focuses-on-high-margin-mro-services-to-drive-growth-in-aging-aviation-market][3] OEM and fleet challenges - Aviation Leaders Report 2024 [https://kpmg.com/ie/en/home/insights/2024/01/fs-aviation-leaders-report-2024/oem-and-fleet-challenges-fs-aviation.html][4] Boeing rolls out first 737 Max at 38 per month rate [https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-production/boeing-rolls-out-737-max-38-per-month-rate/]