Can AERO Sustain Its Rally Amid Reduced Team Buybacks and Whale-Driven Accumulation?

The AERO token, native to the Aerodrome Finance protocol, has experienced a dramatic 36% price surge in the past week amid a broader crypto market downturn, according to a Yahoo Finance article. This rally, however, has occurred against a backdrop of reduced team buybacks and mixed on-chain signals. Investors are now scrutinizing whether AERO can defend its $0.90 support level or face a potential breakdown to $0.71, a critical inflection point for short-to-mid-term risk/reward dynamics.

Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Sentiment: A Double-Edged Sword

AERO's recent price action has been fueled by whale activity, with large holders accumulating 90.59 million tokens in late 2025, pushing the price to $0.90, according to a Phemex report. Such accumulation typically signals confidence in the token's fundamentals, but it also raises concerns about liquidity constraints. Whale-driven rallies often create uneven distribution, where retail investors may struggle to exit positions if larger holders decide to offload tokens.

Meanwhile, on-chain sentiment appears mixed. While the Aerodrome Public Goods Fund repurchased 560,000 AERO tokens in a strategic buyback, the Yahoo Finance article noted, net flows and buy/sell deltas for Q4 2025 remain opaque. The absence of granular data on-chain metrics-such as net inflows to exchanges or shifts in sell pressure-leaves room for uncertainty. For instance, a lack of sustained inflows into decentralized exchanges (DEXs) could indicate weak retail participation, undermining the token's ability to maintain its current valuation.

Reduced Team Buybacks: A Growing Vulnerability

AERO's price resilience has historically relied on aggressive team buybacks. In September 2025, the protocol achieved a milestone when its revenue ($39.4 million) exceeded emissions ($26.6 million), generating a net value accrual of $12.8 million, the Yahoo Finance article reported. However, recent buyback activity has slowed. The absence of large-scale repurchases-combined with the broader market's volatility-raises questions about the protocol's capacity to sustain upward momentum.

This reduction in buybacks contrasts with the bullish signals from institutional players. Animoca Brands, for example, max-locked AERO as veAERO, signaling long-term alignment with the project's governance and growth, the Yahoo Finance article observed. Such moves could partially offset the lack of team-driven demand, but they are not a substitute for consistent buyback programs.

Price Action and Key Levels: $0.90 vs. $0.71

The $0.90 level represents a critical psychological barrier for AERO. A successful defense here would validate the token's recent whale-driven rally and potentially attract new buyers. However, a breakdown to $0.71-a level last seen in early October 2025-could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and erode confidence in the protocol's fundamentals.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For short-to-mid-term investors, the key question is whether AERO's on-chain dynamics can compensate for reduced team buybacks. Whale accumulation and institutional alignment (e.g., Animoca's veAERO lock) provide a bullish case, but these factors must be weighed against the risks of liquidity crunches and declining protocol-driven demand.

If AERO holds above $0.90, it could signal a shift toward organic demand, driven by improved protocol economics and whale-led distribution. Conversely, a drop below $0.71 would likely force the team to reassess buyback strategies or risk further devaluation.

Conclusion

AERO's ability to sustain its rally hinges on a delicate balance between whale-driven optimism and the protocol's capacity to maintain buyback momentum. While the recent 36% surge defies broader market trends, as noted in the Yahoo Finance article, investors must remain cautious about the risks of reduced team activity and uneven on-chain flows. The coming weeks will test whether AERO can transition from a whale-dominated narrative to a more sustainable, protocol-driven growth story.