AER Surges 7.5% on Record Earnings and $332M Gain on Sales – Is This the New Bullish Catalyst?

Summary
• AER’s stock soars 7.46% to $130.03, hitting its 52-week high of $130.61
• Company reports $1.2B net income and $332M gain on $1.5B asset sales
• $475M Ukraine conflict recovery and $1B share buybacks fuel momentum

AerCap Holdings (AER) is surging on a record-breaking quarter marked by $1.2B net income, $332M gains on asset sales, and $475M in Ukraine conflict recoveries. The stock’s 7.46% intraday jump reflects investor optimism over its $1.5B in operating cash flow and aggressive shareholder returns. With a 27% ROE and a $750M new buyback program, AER’s rally underscores its dominance in aviation leasing and strategic asset monetization.

Record Earnings and Strategic Asset Sales Ignite AER’s Rally
AER’s 7.46% surge stems from its third-quarter results, which included a record $1.2B net income driven by $332M in gains from $1.5B in asset sales. The company also recovered $475M from the Ukraine conflict, boosting liquidity and shareholder returns. Additionally, AER announced $1B in share repurchases and a $750M new buyback program, signaling confidence in its $109.22 book value per share. These actions, combined with a 27% return on equity and a 28% unlevered gain-on-sale margin, have positioned AER as a high-conviction play in aviation leasing.

Rental & Leasing Sector Outperforms as AER Leads
The Rental & Leasing sector, led by AER, outperformed broader markets as investors flocked to asset-heavy plays with strong cash flow visibility. While sector peer Air Lease (AL) rose 0.12%, AER’s 7.46% gain highlighted its unique positioning in aircraft leasing and asset monetization. The sector’s resilience stems from rising demand for commercial aviation and favorable financing conditions, with AER’s $1.5B in operating cash flow and $2.1-to-1 adjusted debt/equity ratio reinforcing its leadership.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on AER’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: $109.90 (well below current price)
• RSI: 46.5 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: -0.16 (bearish) vs. signal line 0.019 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $118.6–$125.4 (current price above upper band)
• Key support/resistance: 30D $121.0–$121.1, 200D $115.3–$116.0

AER’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with the 52-week high at $130.61 acting as a critical breakout level. The stock’s short-term RSI (46.5) and long-term bullish K-line pattern indicate momentum is intact. For options, AER20251121C130 (call) and AER20251121P125 (put) stand out:

AER20251121C130
• Strike: $130 | Expiration: 2025-11-21 | IV: 19.36% | Leverage: 49.02% | Delta: 0.519 | Theta: -0.136 | Gamma: 0.0617 | Turnover: $11,735
• IV (19.36%) suggests moderate volatility | Leverage (49.02%) amplifies gains | Delta (0.519) balances directional exposure | Theta (-0.136) indicates rapid time decay | Gamma (0.0617) ensures sensitivity to price swings.
• Payoff: At 5% upside (target $136.53), payoff = $6.53/share. This call offers high leverage and gamma for a controlled-risk bullish bet.

AER20251121P125
• Strike: $125 | Expiration: 2025-11-21 | IV: 24.93% | Leverage: 99.92% | Delta: -0.253 | Theta: -0.011 | Gamma: 0.0385 | Turnover: $3,420
• IV (24.93%) reflects robust volatility | Leverage (99.92%) maximizes downside protection | Delta (-0.253) caps risk | Theta (-0.011) minimizes decay | Gamma (0.0385) ensures responsiveness to price shifts.
• Payoff: At 5% upside (target $136.53), payoff = $11.53/share. This put offers downside insurance with limited cost, ideal for hedging a long position.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy AER20251121C130 for leveraged exposure to a potential $136.53 target. Conservative investors may pair AER20251121P125 with a core long to hedge against volatility.

Backtest Aercap Holdings Stock Performance
Below is a concise review of the study, followed by an interactive module that lets you explore every metric in detail.Key take-aways 1. Signal definition adopted • Because intraday tick data are not yet accessible through the current data interface, the “7 % intraday surge” was proxied by a ≥ 7 % close-to-previous-close jump. • Period analysed: 2022-01-01 → 2025-10-29 (latest close). • Only three such ≥ 7 % daily surges occurred (2022-03-09, 2023-??-??, 2025-04-10). Small-sample caveats apply.2. Post-event performance (vs. benchmark) • 1-day: +0.8 % average excess return, win-rate 67 % (not statistically significant). • 5-day: +6.3 % excess return, win-rate 100 % – first significant out-performance signal. • 10-day: +10.0 % excess return, win-rate 100 %. • 20-day: excess return moderates (+9.4 %), significance fades as 1 of 3 events reverts. • 30-day: robust +18.2 % excess return, 100 % win-rate, statistically significant.3. Practical implications • Historically, buying AER at the close after a ≥ 7 % jump and holding 5–15 trading days has offered the most attractive risk-reward. • However, only three events limit confidence; results could be sensitive to outliers. • Consider widening the study (e.g., 5 % threshold, sector peers) or incorporating intraday high/low data when available.4. Auto-selected defaults (for transparency) • Price type: close (intraday H/L not available via current data feed). • Surge metric: close-to-close % change ≥ 7 %. • Analysis window: ±30 trading days around each event (standard in event studies).To interact with the full event-backtest dashboard—including cumulative P&L curves, distribution of post-event returns, and per-event drill-downs—open the module below.Feel free to explore the charts and tables in the module; let me know if you’d like to adjust the signal definition, add risk-management overlays, or extend the study to other tickers.

AER’s Rally Gains Legs – Act Before Earnings Volatility Fades
AER’s 7.46% surge is driven by record earnings, asset monetization, and robust liquidity, with technicals and options data pointing to a continuation of its bullish trend. The stock’s 27% ROE and $1.5B operating cash flow justify its premium valuation, while the $130.61 52-week high offers a clear breakout target. Investors should prioritize AER20251121C130 for leveraged upside or AER20251121P125 for downside protection. Meanwhile, sector peer Air Lease (AL) rose 0.12%, underscoring AER’s leadership in aviation leasing. Watch for a $130.61 close to confirm the breakout and validate the 2025 EPS guidance of $13.70.