AER Surges 6.86% on Record Earnings and Bold Guidance Hike – Is This the New Bullish Catalyst?

Summary
• AerCap (AER) surges 6.86% to $129.3, hitting 52-week high of $130.61
• Q3 net income jumps to $1.216B, EPS at $6.98, with adjusted EPS guidance raised to $13.70
• $1.5B asset sales and $332M gain-on-sale drive momentum
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded, with AER20251121C125 and AER20251121C130 leading volume
AerCap’s Q3 results ignited a historic intraday rally, fueled by record earnings, aggressive guidance, and a $1.5B asset sale bonanza. The stock’s 6.86% surge reflects investor confidence in its capital return strategy and leasing market dominance, while options activity highlights speculative bets on continued momentum.

Record Earnings and Guidance Hike Ignite AER’s Bullish Surge
AerCap’s 6.86% intraday surge stems from a trifecta of catalysts: record Q3 net income of $1.216 billion ($6.98 EPS), a $1.5 billion asset sale with a 28% unlevered margin, and a $13.70 adjusted EPS guidance hike. The company’s 27% ROE, $1.5B cash flow, and $2.9B Ukraine conflict recoveries since 2023 underscore its resilience. Shareholders also received a $1B buyback boost, with a new $750M repurchase program announced. These metrics validate AerCap’s leadership in aviation leasing and its ability to monetize a robust order book, driving immediate price action.

Options Playbook: Leveraging AER’s Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: 109.90 (well below current price)
• RSI: 46.55 (neutral, not overbought)
• MACD: -0.16 (bearish but signal line at 0.018 suggests divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 129.3 (above upper band of 125.38, indicating strong breakout)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed
Trading Setup: AER’s 6.86% surge has created a short-term breakout above key resistance. Key levels to watch: 125.38 (Bollinger upper), 130.61 (52-week high), and 118.61 (lower band). The stock’s 30D MA at 121.85 and 200D MA at 109.90 suggest a multi-month bullish trend. While no leveraged ETFs are listed, the 22.41% leverage ratio on AER20251121C125 amplifies upside potential.
Top Options Picks:
• AER20251121C125
- Strike: $125, Expiry: 2025-11-21, IV: 17.74%, Leverage: 22.41%, Delta: 0.8219, Theta: -0.1599, Gamma: 0.04398, Turnover: 8,244
- IV: Moderate volatility supports directional bets; Leverage: Amplifies returns on a 5% upside (projected payoff: $4.65); Delta: High sensitivity to price moves; Gamma: Strong sensitivity to acceleration in price.
- Why it stands out: This call offers a 22.41% leverage ratio with high gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the breakout. With 8,244 contracts traded, liquidity is robust.
• AER20251121C130
- Strike: $130, Expiry: 2025-11-21, IV: 18.09%, Leverage: 51.58%, Delta: 0.5244, Theta: -0.1336, Gamma: 0.0660, Turnover: 12,233
- IV: Slightly higher than 125 call, balancing risk/reward; Leverage: 51.58% amplifies returns on a 5% upside (projected payoff: $4.45); Delta: Moderate sensitivity; Gamma: Strongest in the chain for directional acceleration.
- Why it stands out: The 51.58% leverage ratio and 0.0660 gamma make this ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a push above $130.61. High turnover (12,233) ensures ease of entry/exit.
Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize AER20251121C130 for a 5% upside target. If $130.61 breaks, consider rolling into AER20251219C135 for extended exposure.

Backtest Aercap Holdings Stock Performance
Below is an executive summary of the event study, followed by an interactive module that lets you explore every metric in detail.Key take-aways • Sample size: 3 occurrences of an intraday surge ≥ 7 % (2022-03-09, 2024-05-01, 2025-04-10). • Short-term follow-through: Average return after 5 trading days ≈ +6.3 % (benchmark ≈ +0.4 %). • Persistence: Gains remain statistically significant out to 30 trading days (avg ≈ +18.2 % vs benchmark ≈ +2.6 %). • Win-rate: 100 % for holding horizons of 3–19 trading days; dips to 67 % at day 20 before recovering. • Practical inference: A 7 %+ daily jump in AER has historically led to sustained strength for about one month, but conclusions are tentative due to the limited number of events.Interact with the complete report below:Open the module to inspect detailed day-by-day win rates, cumulative returns, and statistical significance.

AER’s Bullish Catalysts Are Just Getting Started – Position for the Next Leg
AerCap’s 6.86% surge is underpinned by structural strengths: $1.5B in asset sales, 27% ROE, and a $13.70 EPS guidance hike. Technicals confirm a short-term breakout, with Bollinger bands and Kline patterns aligning with a bullish bias. The 22.41% leverage ratio on AER20251121C125 and 51.58% on AER20251121C130 offer amplified exposure to this momentum. Investors should monitor the 130.61 52-week high and 125.38 Bollinger upper band as critical levels. Meanwhile, Boeing (BA), the sector leader, fell 3.45%, highlighting AER’s outperformance. Act now: Buy AER20251121C130 for a 5% upside target or hold AER for a potential $130.61 breakout.