Aemetis’ 2026 Q2 Earnings Call: IPO Delays, LCFS Price Shifts, and MVR Timeline Uncertainty Don’t Match

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Date of Call: Aug 6, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $62.7M, up 20% YOY
• Operating Margin: $5.8M operating income, improved from an operating loss of $10.7M in Q2 2025

Guidance:

• Two dairy digesters to complete within a month.
• Third corn oil unit operational later this fall, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026.
• MVR system operational at ethanol plant by end of 2026.
• Six additional LCFS pathways pending CARB approval.
• 45Z updates expected from DOE for RNG and ethanol.
• India biodiesel deliveries underway, with additional orders anticipated before year-end.

Business Commentary:

Revenue and Operating Income Growth:

• Aemetis reported a 20% increase in revenue to $62.7 million for Q2 2026, compared to $52.2 million in Q2 2025. Operating income improved by $16.4 million to $5.8 million, compared to an operating loss of $10.7 million in Q2 2025.
• This growth was driven by increases in both the California ethanol and dairy renewable natural gas segments.

Impact of Section 45Z Credits:

• The company's Adjusted EBITDA increased by $15.5 million to $9.7 million, compared with a negative $5.8 million in Q2 2025. Section 45Z credits contributed $8.6 million, with $2.2 million from dairy RNG and $6.4 million from California ethanol.
• The credits played a significant role in improving financial metrics, although the full potential is expected once the Department of Energy corrects the emissions rate calculation.

Dairy RNG Volume and Revenue Streams:

• Dairy RNG volume saw a significant 38% increase, contributing to overall revenue growth. The company generates four revenue streams per MMBtu of dairy RNG: the natural gas molecule, California LCFS credits, federal D3 RINs, and Section 45Z tax credits.
• The higher LCFS pathway approval score of negative 380 compared to the default score of negative 150 has enhanced credit generation and revenue per MMBtu.

India Biodiesel Market:

• Biodiesel revenue was $2.5 million in the quarter, with allocations expected to supply over 18 million liters to government-owned Oil Marketing Companies, generating approximately $17 million in revenue.
• The increase in India's domestic diesel prices has created opportunities for biodiesel blending, driving demand from private commercial customers.

Capital Projects and Energy Efficiency:

• Investments in energy efficiency projects and biogas production were $8.6 million in the quarter. The mechanical vapor recompression system at the Keyes Ethanol Plant is expected to reduce natural gas use by 80%, adding approximately $32 million in annual cash flow.
• The project has received significant grants and tax credits, further enhancing its financial viability and contribution to overall profitability.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO states 'Q2 continues the financial inflection points we noted' with revenue up 20% and operating income improving by $16.4M. He highlights 'benefited from... approval of seven new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways' and 'capital projects are advancing.'

Q&A:

• Question from Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital): Wanted to start on 45Z. Given the likely positive revision you’ll receive in your CI score when the PER is finalized in November policy, do you have a sense of the amount of uplift you’ll receive and the potential catch-up value for past molecules that have been processed under existing policy?
  Response: Expects three 45Z updates: RNG emissions rate could range from -42 to -420, impacting value per MMBtu; corn emission rate improvement could provide $6M-$24M net cash, with annual impact of $6M-$12M; CO2 reuse could add $12M-$15M annually. MVR project will also boost 45Z revenue.

• Question from Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital): Wanted to shift over to California LCFS with my follow-up. Wanted to get your thoughts on the recovery of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits just based on what we saw last week in the 1Q CARB report and also the proliferation of LCFS markets that we’re seeing...
  Response: Sees California LCFS in deficit due to limited low-carbon feedstock and high renewable diesel penetration; expects LCFS credit prices to rise as the bank depletes, with a cap of $270 per credit.

• Question from Ed Woo (Ascendiant Capital): Going back to the LCFS credit recovery, the pricing has gone from about $55 a ton-$80 a ton recently. Do you have any guidance on how high do you think it can go?
  Response: Sees cap at $270; believes oil industry may resist enforcement, but program will continue generating deficits, leading traders to buy credits sooner rather than face higher future costs.

• Question from Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright): With respect to sort of the India IPO process for the India biodiesel plant, the start and stop nature of operations over there, is that becoming a little bit of an overhang on the process, Eric? How should we think about that item being checked off in 2026? Does this get pushed out to 2027?
  Response: Timing depends on IPO market conditions, which were impacted by overall market volatility; pipeline is clearing, and IPO is in process, subject to market availability.

• Question from Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright): You also mentioned some of that capacity is going to private parties, not the Oil Marketing Companies. Is this sort of a new development, or have you already always been supplying some of that capacity to private players over there?
  Response: It is a new development driven by higher domestic diesel prices, allowing commercial customers to purchase biodiesel at a 3%-5% discount with additional benefits.

• Question from Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright): Are you comfortable with your liquidity position? Right now, the balance sheet seems to have quite a bit of current debt. Just wondering, how you are planning to sort of address that part of the story.
  Response: Has productive relationship with private credit provider; plans to pay down debt using proceeds from 45Z catch-ups and refinance to longer-term, lower rates.

• Question from Dave Storms (Stonegate): Maybe want to start with the gross margin profile, expecting that you’ll be entering 2027 with an even stronger profile following the MVR coming online. As we’re thinking through the impact of that, do you think there will be more leverage to the gross margin on the revenue gains from the MVR coming online or the cost takeouts that are also associated with that?
  Response: Of the $32M annual benefit from MVR, about $8M comes from natural gas cost reduction, and $24M from 45Z and LCFS value adds, with potential for higher as LCFS prices increase.

• Question from Dave Storms (Stonegate): Turning to your MMBtus, back of the envelope math, has your digesters running 40,000-50,000 MMBtus per year? Obviously, with variances based on the weather, when it gets colder, the digesters digest less. Is that maybe a fair run rate, though, for these two new digesters that are coming online? Or are there other variables we should keep in mind?
  Response: Average dairy generation is 25,000-30,000 MMBtus per year; new digesters are at approximately average dairy size, with updates to be provided in future quarters.

Contradiction Point 1

India Biodiesel IPO Timing and Market Conditions

Contradiction on the impact of market conditions on the IPO timeline.

Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright) - Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright)

2026Q2: Operational start-stop has an impact, but higher global energy prices (due to geopolitical factors) have had a larger effect on the broader Indian stock market and IPO timing. - Eric McAfee(CEO)

Is the start-stop nature of operations delaying the potential IPO of a minority stake in the India biodiesel plant, potentially pushing it to 2027? - Matthew Blair (TPH)

2026Q1: This sets up a breakout opportunity for the IPO. - Eric McAfee(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

LCFS Credit Price Trajectory

Differing outlooks on the direction and drivers of LCFS credit prices.

Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital) - Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital)

2026Q2: The California LCFS program is in deficit... Prices are expected to rise as traders avoid the $270+ max price in the future. - Eric McAfee(CFO)

How do you view the recovery of LCFS credit prices given recent CARB reports and the expansion of LCFS markets, including competitors in the Canadian Fuel Registry? - Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital Securities)

2025Q4: LCFS credit prices have risen from $40 to $70 and could reach $100 in 2026 and $150+ in 2027, driven by quarterly deficits. - Eric McAfee(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Timeline and Certainty of 45Z Tax Credit Monetization

Contradiction on when and how consistently 45Z credits will be monetized.

Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital) - Derrick Whitfield (Texas Capital)

2026Q2: We expect a one-time catch-up... and annual benefits. - Eric McAfee(CEO)

Given the likely positive revision to your carbon intensity (CI) score for 45Z when the PER is finalized in November, what is the estimated uplift and potential catch-up value for past molecules under existing policy? - Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright)

20251107-2025 Q3: The delay in monetizing 45Z credits was due to... complexity of selling partial credits. - Eric McAfee(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Expectations for Refinancing U.S. Debt

Contradiction on the timing and certainty of refinancing expensive U.S. debt.

Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright) - Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright)

2026Q2: The goal is to continue pay-downs... and to refinance the remaining balance... - Eric McAfee(CEO)

How confident are you in the company's liquidity position given current debt levels? - Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright)

20251107-2025 Q3: Debt refinancing is in process but delayed by the uncertainty around 45Z credit values. - Eric McAfee(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

MVR Project Timeline & Benefits

Conflicting statements on when the MVR benefits will be fully realized and their composition.

Dave Storms (Stonegate) - Dave Storms (Stonegate)

2026Q2: The MVR project will also boost 45Z revenue... The $32M annual benefit from the MVR is split: ~$8M from reducing fossil natural gas costs... ~$24M from increased 45Z and LCFS values. - Eric McAfee(CFO)

With MVR's 2027 launch, will revenue growth or cost reductions drive more gross margin leverage? - Amit Dayal (H.C. Wainwright & Co.)

2025Q4: Contributions will begin in Q3 2026 and be fully in place by Q4 2026, affecting roughly half of the year. - Eric McAfee(CFO)

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