Aemetis 2025 Q3 Earnings Misses Targets as Net Loss Widens 32.4%

Aemetis (AMTX) reported Q3 2025 earnings that fell short of expectations, with a net loss of $23.75 million, a 32.4% increase from the $17.93 million loss in Q3 2024. Revenue declined 27.3% year-over-year to $59.19 million, missing analyst estimates. The company highlighted operational expansions in renewable natural gas and India biodiesel but faced challenges in refining margins and debt servicing.

Revenue

Aemetis’s total revenue for Q3 2025 was $59.19 million, driven by $40.73 million from California Ethanol, $14.47 million from India Biodiesel, and $4 million from California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas. The California Ethanol segment, which operates a 65 million-gallon ethanol plant, saw revenue growth from higher ethanol prices and volumes. However, the India Biodiesel segment faced delays in government contracts, while the Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segment generated revenue from 12 digesters producing 114,000 MMBtu of RNG.

Earnings/Net Income

The company’s net loss widened to $23.75 million in Q3 2025, compared to $17.93 million in Q3 2024, despite narrowing the per-share loss to $0.37 from $0.38. The EPS decline reflects higher interest expenses and reduced gross profit. While the per-share loss improved marginally, the overall net loss expansion signals ongoing operational and financial pressures.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Aemetis shares surged 20% on the day of the earnings release but fell 1.41% for the week and 25.8% month-to-date. The stock’s volatility underscores market skepticism about the company’s ability to sustain profitability, despite sequential revenue growth and strategic initiatives like the $30 million MVR system agreement, which is projected to boost annual cash flow by $32 million.

CEO Commentary

Eric McAfee, Chairman & CEO of Aemetis, emphasized progress in renewable natural gas capacity, stating, “We expect to reach 500,000 MMBtu of RNG production capacity by year-end 2025 and scale to 1 million MMBtu annually by 2026.” He highlighted the completion of a multi-dairy digester in September, which increased RNG capacity by 30%, and the planned $20 million sale of tax credits to strengthen liquidity. McAfee also noted challenges in India biodiesel due to delayed government contracts but expressed confidence in the India subsidiary’s 2026 IPO roadmap and expanding LCFS credit monetization.

Guidance

Aemetis provided cautious guidance for Q4 2025, targeting sequential revenue growth driven by higher RNG production and India biodiesel sales. The company expects operating cash flow to improve as new projects reach completion and 45Z tax credits are monetized. McAfee reiterated plans to refinance high-cost debt using 45Z revenue and advance the India IPO, though he acknowledged delays in DOE updates for 45Z calculations could impact timelines.

Additional News

Aemetis announced a $30 million MVR system agreement to reduce ethanol production costs and enhance carbon intensity credits. The company also appointed a new CFO for its India subsidiary to oversee the planned 2026 IPO. Additionally, Aemetis signed $57 million in equipment contracts on favorable terms, avoiding shareholder dilution, and reported $5.6 million in cash reserves at quarter-end, up from $900,000 in 2024. These moves aim to strengthen liquidity ahead of capital-intensive projects and expand market access in India and California.

Aemetis’s strategic focus on RNG expansion, tax credit monetization, and international growth positions it to navigate near-term challenges, though execution risks remain tied to regulatory and market dynamics.