Aehr Test Systems Soars 36% on AI Hyperscaler Orders: Is This the Dawn of a Semiconductor Revolution?

Summary
• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) surges 36.13% to $24.64, hitting its 52-week high of $25.77
• Follow-on orders for six Sonoma systems from a top hyperscaler signal AI-driven demand acceleration
• Turnover jumps to 9.68 million shares, with RSI at 45.83 and MACD at 0.467
• The stock’s meteoric rise reflects a seismic shift in semiconductor testing as AI processors dominate the landscape. With a 52-week range of $6.27–$25.77 and a dynamic PE of -188.51, AEHR’s volatility underscores the high-stakes bet on AI infrastructure.

AI Hyperscaler Orders Ignite Aehr’s Volatility
Aehr Test Systems’ 36.13% intraday surge stems from a follow-on order for six Sonoma ultra-high-power packaged part burn-in systems from a major hyperscaler. This client, identified as a leading cloud provider, is scaling production of custom AI processors to optimize workloads like LLM inference and NLP. The order follows a similar $8M deal in July, signaling sustained demand for Aehr’s liquid-cooled, per-device testing solutions. CEO Gayn Erickson emphasized the strategic partnership, noting the hyperscaler’s plans to expand capacity and develop future processor generations. With the AI chip market projected to grow from $60B in 2023 to $600B by 2032, Aehr’s niche in high-reliability testing for AI semiconductors has become a focal point for investors.

Semiconductor Equipment Sector Gains Momentum as Aehr Leads
The semiconductor equipment sector, led by Applied Materials (AMAT) at -0.34% intraday, shows mixed momentum. While AMAT’s decline reflects near-term headwinds in traditional chip manufacturing, Aehr’s 36.13% surge highlights the sector’s bifurcation. AI-driven demand for specialized testing tools is outpacing legacy markets, with Aehr’s Sonoma systems addressing a $600B AI chip market. Sector news underscores this shift, with TSMC eliminating Chinese equipment from 2nm fabs and NVIDIA navigating U.S.-China trade tensions. Aehr’s focus on AI processor testing positions it as a beneficiary of the sector’s AI-centric realignment.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Aehr’s Volatility with High-Leverage Contracts
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day MA: $12.12 (well below current price)
- RSI: 45.83 (neutral, not overbought)
- MACD: 0.467 (bullish divergence)
- Bollinger Bands: Upper at $20.50, Middle at $18.42, Lower at $16.33
- Kline pattern: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish
• Trading Setup: Aehr’s price action suggests a breakout above the 52-week high of $25.77 could trigger a retest of the $21.00 support level. The RSI’s neutrality and MACD’s positive divergence indicate potential for a continuation of the rally, especially if the hyperscaler’s AI production pipeline expands. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) could serve as sector benchmarks, though leveraged ETF data is unavailable.
• Top Options Contracts:
- AEHR20250919C22.5 (Call, $22.5 strike, 9/19 expiration):
- IV: 86.62% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.695 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0607 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0616 (strong gamma amplifies delta)
- Turnover: $448,026 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 7.23% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($25.87): $3.37 per contract. This call offers a high delta and gamma, ideal for a short-term bullish bet on a breakout.
- AEHR20250919C25 (Call, $25 strike, 9/19 expiration):
- IV: 99.75% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.532 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0674 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0608 (robust gamma)
- Turnover: $806,186 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 10.03% (high)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($25.87): $0.87 per contract. This contract balances leverage and liquidity, suitable for a conservative long-term position if the rally sustains.
• Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize AEHR20250919C22.5 for a short-term play, while AEHR20250919C25 offers a safer, longer-term bet. Both contracts benefit from Aehr’s proximity to its 52-week high and the hyperscaler’s AI production roadmap.

Backtest Aehr Test Systems Stock Performance
The performance of AEHR after a 36% intraday surge has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that the 3-day win rate is 44.86%, the 10-day win rate is 43.71%, and the 30-day win rate is 45.43%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a significant increase. The maximum return during the backtest period was 36.59%, which occurred on day 59 after the intraday surge, suggesting that there is potential for further price appreciation.

Aehr’s AI-Driven Surge: A High-Velocity Trade in a $600B Market
Aehr Test Systems’ 36.13% surge is a testament to the AI chip boom’s transformative power. With the hyperscaler’s follow-on orders and the AI market’s projected $600B valuation by 2032, Aehr’s Sonoma systems are positioned as a critical node in the AI supply chain. The stock’s technicals—MACD divergence, RSI neutrality, and a 52-week high breakout—signal a high-velocity trade. Investors should monitor the $25.77 level for a potential retest and consider the AEHR20250919C22.5 call for a short-term play. Meanwhile, sector leader Applied Materials (AMAT) at -0.34% highlights the sector’s bifurcation, with AI-driven firms outpacing traditional players. For those seeking exposure, Aehr’s volatility and strategic positioning make it a compelling, albeit high-risk, bet in the AI era.