Aebi Schmidt Holding AG’s 2026 Q2 Call: Autonomous Revenue Timing, Synergy Roadmap, and Backlog Claims Don’t Match

Date of Call: Aug 13, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: EUR 496 million, representing an impressive organic growth of 9.4% compared with the second quarter of 2025
• Gross Margin: Temporary pressure due to unexpected supply chain challenges and material cost pressure, but recent price increases will mostly come through by year-end and early 2027
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 8.5%, reflecting an improvement of around 90 basis points

Guidance:

• Full year 2026 guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA is confirmed.
• Expect at least another half a turn improvement in leverage by the end of 2026.
• Long-term ambition is to become a EUR 3 billion revenue company with a mid-teen adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin target for 2024 is above 13%.

Business Commentary:

Revenue and Profitability Growth:

• Aebi Schmidt Group reported a 9% increase in net sales and a 22% growth in adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025.
• The growth in profitability was due to production ramp-ups, operational efficiency, accelerated realization of acquisition synergies, and strict cost control.

Order Intake and Backlog Expansion:

• The company's order intake increased by 16%, and the order backlog grew by 20% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
• The growth was supported by strong demand across major business lines, including significant orders in North America and Europe.

North America Performance:

• North America delivered a strong quarter with 11% year-over-year sales growth and a 22% increase in adjusted EBITDA.
• Key drivers included robust order momentum in airport and chassis, a significant $96 million frame contract, and improved operating efficiency.

Europe and Rest of World Performance:

• Europe and Rest of World reported a 7% increase in net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted EBITDA.
• The growth was driven by exceptional order intake momentum, strong demand for electrified municipal vehicles, and successful cross-selling initiatives.

Strategic Growth and Synergies:

• One year after acquiring Shyft Group, Aebi Schmidt reported a 26% increase in order intake and a 22% growth in adjusted EBITDA.
• The positive results were attributed to successful integration, expanded American footprint, simplified brand architecture, and increased synergy targets.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO states 'Our second quarter 2026 results are another substantial step forward with significantly improved profitability' and 'This progress reinforces our confidence in the long-term value creation potential.' Management highlights strong order growth, backlog conversion, and profitability outpacing revenue growth.

Q&A:

• Question from Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson): The large order that you mentioned in the quarter, did you say it was a seven-year order or a $96 million order, maybe that was? Was that all in the backlog as of the end of the quarter? Is that entirely for shipment in 2026? How common is a $90 million-plus order? Is that something that would happen every quarter, or this is just a very unusual one-time thing?
  Response: It is a seven-year, $96 million order, first revenue realization in 2027. It was not booked into backlog as the company waits for a purchase order. It is unusual as it is from a new customer segment and includes cargo vans.

• Question from Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson): I'm sure you've heard this, there was an announcement last week, with Ford transitioning a good portion of their walk-in van chassis business... Can you share on this call, what are your impressions of that deal?... do you look to see any temporary disruption on your step van business as they change over?
  Response: Sees the move as positive as it stabilizes chassis supply and removes risk of a bigger supply gap. Has seen some clients move from Ford to FCCC chassis and will monitor the situation, but overall sees it as a positive development with two providers remaining.

• Question from Ben Sommers (BTIG): I wanted to ask a little bit on the Strategy 2030 strategic target that you guys gave. It seems like there was some M&A baked in there. Just curious what you are seeing in that market, and if you could talk a little about what is baked into that assumption.
  Response: M&A opportunities are seen in Europe (expanding summer business), commercial business (transformation/consolidation), and the U.S. sweeper area to achieve a similar business model.

• Question from Ben Sommers (BTIG): Just kind of wanted to ask a little bit about production or manufacturing capacity... how do you think about manufacturing capacity moving forward and is there any specific markets that maybe you are targeting moving forward in North America?
  Response: The Joliet upfit center is operational and ramping up successfully. The Iowa upfit center is operational for commercial upfitting, with municipal to follow. The operational footprint is well set but future rationalization and cost reductions are possible.

• Question from Matt Koranda (Roth Capital): Maybe could you first unpack some of the temporary impacts that you’re investing in, I guess, in the supply chain that are driving the slight shift and the leverage target at the end of the year?
  Response: Temporary investments are due to increased safety stocks and bulk buying to counter unexpected material cost inflation and supply chain risk. This will impact through year-end and into Q1 2027 but is necessary to mitigate pressure on gross margin.

• Question from Matt Koranda (Roth Capital): For my follow-up, just looking at the long-term outlook, and the margin target in 2030... How should we think about the step-up through 2030? Is that a linear sort of step-up in progression that you envision? Or is there something a little bit lumpier that we should be taking into account...
  Response: The margin expansion is expected to be largely linear due to a combination of measures (operational footprint, after-sales market, synergies), with no single large step-up, progressing to the 13%+ target by 2024.

• Question from Dave Storms (Stonegate): Saw that you did increase that target to over EUR 40 million. Could you maybe just help us understand where that’s coming from, what that should look like on the ground and maybe any timing around that increase?
  Response: The increase to ~EUR 40 million in synergies is driven by additional OpEx savings, in-house production of service bodies (XP ServicePRO), and cross-selling synergies. EUR 37 million will be realized by year-end 2026, with the remaining ~EUR 5 million expected in 2027.

• Question from Dave Storms (Stonegate): Maybe switching over to the guidance, I think it was pretty well laid out. What could put you on the lower end of the guidance between the geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, inflationary pressures? Just thinking about what you can control in-house, where do you see the greatest leverage points to maybe put you on the higher end of that guidance...
  Response: Tariffs have an indirect impact. The company is more impacted by material cost increases (e.g., iron ore). Recent price increases will improve gross margin by year-end 2026 and into 2027.

Contradiction Point 1

Financial Impact and Timeline of Autonomous Airport Product Agreement

Financial impact timeline shifted from mid/long-term to immediate contribution.

Dave Storms (Stonegate) - Dave Storms (Stonegate)

2026Q2: The increase from the initial €25-30 million target... The company now expects €37 million realized by year-end 2026, with the remaining ~€5 million coming in 2027. - [Marco Portmann](CFO)

Can you detail the sources, components, and timing of the increased €40 million synergy target? - Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson & Co.)

2026Q1: Aebi Schmidt will integrate Yeti Move's autonomous technology... Financial impact will be in the mid- and long-term, with no short-term revenue expected... - [Steffen Schewerda](CEO North America)

Contradiction Point 2

Recovery and Margin Outlook for Walk-in Van Business

Timeline for significant margin recovery shifted from immediate to gradual.

Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson) - Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson)

2026Q2: The depressed walk-in van market is now showing structural recovery with order momentum. Margin improvement will be realized over coming quarters due to production efficiency gains and market recovery. - [Marco Portmann](CFO)

What are Aebi Schmidt's impressions of Ford's transition of its walk-in van chassis business to Blue Bird, and could this lead to operational changes or temporary disruptions in the step van business? - Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson & Co.)

2026Q1: Massive improvement is expected through Q2 into Q3, supported by strong order entry. Margin expansion is significant month-over-month. - [Steffen Schewerda](CEO North America)

Contradiction Point 3

Revenue Guidance and Key Drivers

The primary factor determining revenue guidance's high/low end shifted from the commercial segment to broader market conditions.

Dave Storms (Stonegate) - Dave Storms (Stonegate)

2026Q2: **Uncontrollable factors** like tariffs and inflation... are challenges. - [Barend Fruithof](CEO)

What factors could push results to the lower end of guidance, and where are the greatest internal leverage points to push towards the higher end? - Gregory Lewis (BTIG, LLC)

2026Q1: Key revenue driver between guidance extremes is the commercial segment, which remains soft and uncertain for H2. - [Marco Portmann](CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Backlog Booking for Large Orders

Contradiction on whether a large order is booked into backlog at quarter-end.

Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson) - Michael Shlisky (D.A. Davidson)

2026Q2: The order was not booked into the backlog at quarter-end. The company only books backlog once a purchase order (PO) is received. - [Steffen Schewerda](CEO, North America) and [Barend Fruithof](CEO)

Regarding the $96 million order: Was it a seven-year contract, fully in the backlog at quarter-end, and entirely scheduled for 2026 shipment? How common are such large orders, and is this a typical quarterly occurrence? - Gregory Lewis (BTIG)

2025Q4: The pro forma backlog increased year-over-year. It is strong in municipal, airport, and European businesses, and also grew significantly in walk-in vans. - [Steffen Schewerda](CEO, North America)

Contradiction Point 5

Synergy Target Realization Timeline

Contradiction on the expected timing for realizing a portion of synergies.

Will Dave Storms from Stonegate be participating in the earnings call? - Dave Storms (Stonegate)

2026Q2: The remaining ~€5 million coming in 2027. This final piece is largely from revenue synergies (cross-selling) from the Shyft acquisition, particularly the in-house production of the XP ServicePRO service body, which is now ramping in Q3. - [Marco Portmann](CFO)

Could you detail the source, components, and timing of the increased synergy target exceeding €40 million? - Matt Koranda (Roth Capital)

2025Q4: Procurement synergies will kick in Q3 2026, while revenue synergies will materialize in H2 2026, with full realization by summer 2027. - [Marco Portmann](CFO)