ADT Announces Major Stock Offering, Shares Decline Amid Analyst Predictions

ADT Inc. has announced a secondary offering of 71 million shares, impacting share prices negatively. Analysts project a one-year price target range from $9.00 to $10.20, indicating potential upside. GuruFocus estimates suggest a slight downside, with a GF Value of $8.35. The stock currently holds an average brokerage recommendation of 2.4, categorized as "Outperform."

ADT Inc. (NYSE: ADT) has announced a significant secondary public offering of 71 million shares, with underwriters holding a 30-day option to purchase an additional 10.65 million shares [1]. Concurrently, ADT will repurchase approximately 11 million shares from the underwriters, utilizing the remaining capacity of its existing $500 million share repurchase program. The offering is expected to close on July 28, 2025 [1].

The secondary offering, managed by Barclays, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BTIG, involves Apollo Global Management affiliates selling 71 million shares, while ADT repurchases 11 million shares. This dual transaction could affect ADT's ownership structure and stock liquidity. Analysts project a one-year price target range from $9.00 to $10.20, indicating potential upside [2]. GuruFocus estimates suggest a slight downside, with a GF Value of $8.35 [2]. The stock currently holds an average brokerage recommendation of 2.4, categorized as "Outperform" [2].

The secondary offering is notable because it represents a substantial stake being divested by Apollo, a major investor in ADT. ADT's repurchase of shares signals management's confidence in the company's valuation. However, the market's reaction will depend on how investors interpret Apollo's decision to reduce its stake balanced against ADT's willingness to repurchase shares.

ADT is expected to release its Q2 2025 earnings on July 24, 2025, with analysts projecting revenue of $1.28 billion and earnings of $0.18 per share [2]. The full year 2025's revenue is expected to be $5.14 billion and earnings are expected to be $0.73 per share [2]. These financials will provide further insight into the company's performance and the potential impact of the secondary offering.

The secondary offering and share repurchase program are part of ADT's ongoing strategy to manage its share count and ownership structure. Investors should closely monitor ADT's earnings release and the market's reaction to the secondary offering to gauge the potential impact on share prices.

References:
[1] https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ADT/adt-announces-pricing-of-secondary-public-offering-of-common-stock-6uw495muesrf.html
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-watch-adt-inc-adt-132757564.html