ADT 2025 Q3 Earnings Revenue Meets Estimates, Earnings Beat with Revised Guidance

ADT Inc. (ADT) reported fiscal 2025 Q3 results on Nov 4, 2025, with revenue of $1.30 billion, up 4.4% year-over-year, meeting estimates. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $0.85–$0.89 and maintained cash flow targets, though full-year revenue guidance fell slightly below analyst expectations.

Revenue

ADT’s total revenue increased to $1.30 billion in Q3 2025, driven by a 4.4% year-over-year rise. Monitoring and related services contributed $1.10 billion, while security installation and other segments generated $200.39 million. The recurring monthly revenue (RMR) grew 1% to $362 million, reflecting stable customer retention and operational efficiency.

Earnings/Net Income

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged to $0.23 in Q3 2025, a 6.9% beat over estimates, while net income reached $145.13 million, up 14.1% year-over-year. The company’s profitability was bolstered by disciplined cost management and higher-margin service offerings.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Historical backtesting of a strategy to buy ADT when revenues beat estimates and hold for 30 days showed a 73.33% win rate and 10.85% annualized ROI from 2022–2023. However, recent performance (Oct 1–Nov 5, 2025) was mixed, with the stock dropping 8.19% post-earnings despite beating revenue estimates. This volatility may reflect concerns over revised full-year guidance, which fell 0.5% below analyst expectations.

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CEO Commentary

ADT’s President, CEO, and Chairman Jim DeVries highlighted “solid revenue growth, robust cash flow, and very strong earnings per share” in Q3, attributing success to operational discipline and strategic investments in the ADT+ platform. He emphasized growth in recurring revenue, customer retention (13.0% gross attrition), and a $24 million bulk account purchase. Leadership remains confident in the business model’s resilience and long-term value creation.

Guidance

ADT updated its 2025 guidance: revenue of $5.075–$5.175 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.85–$0.89, and adjusted free cash flow of $800–$900 million. While Q3 results exceeded expectations, the full-year revenue midpoint of $5.13 billion was 0.5% below analyst forecasts, citing cautious outlooks for customer acquisition and macroeconomic headwinds.

Additional News

1. Dividend and Buybacks: ADT returned $746 million to shareholders year-to-date through share repurchases and dividends, with a $0.055 per share dividend declared for Q4.

2. Product Innovation: Launched the ADT+ Alarm Range Extender and partnered with Google to refresh Nest camera models, enhancing smart home security offerings.

3. Debt Refinancing: Executed $1.3 billion in debt refinancing, lowering average debt costs to 4.3% and extending maturities.

Conclusion

ADT’s Q3 results reflect strong operational execution and recurring revenue growth, but revised guidance highlights near-term uncertainties. While the stock’s post-earnings volatility underscores market skepticism, the company’s focus on innovation, capital returns, and disciplined execution positions it for long-term stability. Investors should monitor macroeconomic trends and customer acquisition progress.