ADP Preview: Market Eyes Labor Momentum Ahead of Fed Decisions

As investors await the release of the ADP National Employment Report, scheduled for Wednesday morning, all eyes are on the health of the U.S. labor market—a key indicator shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations and broader market sentiment.

🔍 What Is Expected?

Economists polled by Reuters forecast that private payrolls grew by approximately 115,000 in April, slightly lower than the 184,000 jobs added in March. While the labor market remains resilient, recent data—including slowing job openings and modest upticks in initial jobless claims—suggests a gradual cooling, aligning with the Fed’s goal of taming inflation without triggering a recession.

⚠️ What to Watch:

Bond markets, already pricing in four rate cuts by year-end, could react sharply to any surprise in the data. A significant upside surprise could push Treasury yields higher and dampen equity sentiment, while weaker data may lift risk assets as rate-cut bets intensify.