ADP Plunges 4.24% to 298.19 Amid Heavy Selling Pressure

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) declined 4.24% during the most recent session (2025-06-25), closing at 298.19 after trading between 297.22 and 311.195 on elevated volume of 2.35 million shares. This significant downturn occurred amid rejection near the 311.20 level and suggests increased selling pressure.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent candlestick exhibits a pronounced upper shadow (reaching 311.195) and closed near its low, forming a bearish "shooting star" pattern after a multi-day consolidation. This indicates failure to sustain intraday rallies and foreshadows potential downside. Key resistance is established at 311.20 (recent swing high), while immediate support resides near 297.20 (intraday low). A breach of 297.20 could activate secondary support at the psychological 290.00 level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (310.03) and 100-day SMA (300.56) currently trade above the 200-day SMA (282.41), confirming the longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, the current close below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs indicates deteriorating near-term momentum. Sustained trade below the 100-day SMA may signal further consolidation. The 200-day SMA provides a robust long-term foundation, now 5.7% below current price action.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram resides in negative territory (-0.70) with both the MACD line (-2.50) and signal line (-1.80) trending downward, reflecting accelerating bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator registers K=32.1, D=38.5, and J=19.3, approaching oversold thresholds. While not yet deeply oversold, the sub-30 J-value suggests potential for a technical bounce if bullish divergence emerges. Caution remains warranted given MACD’s bearish alignment.
Bollinger Bands
Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band (295.80) after testing the upper band earlier in the week, signaling elevated volatility. Band width expansion aligns with the 4.24% down day, indicating momentum-driven selling. The current position beneath the 20-day middle band (305.50) reinforces bearish near-term control. A sustained break below the lower band would suggest oversold conditions, though this remains unconformed by other indicators.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent distribution occurred on sharply rising volume (2.35M shares vs. 1.30M prior session), validating bearish conviction. Downside volume expansion during the 4.24% decline exceeded upside volume during preceding rallies, indicating imbalance toward selling pressure. The volume spike coincided with rejection at resistance, strengthening the bearish technical signal. Sustained high volume below 300.00 would confirm institutional distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads 42.3, retreating from neutral territory but remaining above the oversold threshold (30). While the indicator doesn’t signal an extreme oversold condition, its downtrend from June highs above 60 signals fading upward momentum. Traders should note that RSI divergence has not yet materialized; continued price erosion without corresponding RSI new lows would suggest weakening downside momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the 231.27 low (2024-07-10) and 329.93 high (2025-06-06), key retracement levels emerge: 306.65 (23.6%), 292.23 (38.2%), and 280.60 (50.0%). Current price negotiates between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels, with the close near 298.19 testing this critical decision zone. The 38.2% retracement (292.23) offers the next technical support, while the 50.0% level would become relevant should selling intensify.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals appears at 310.00-311.20, where the 50-day SMA converges with recent price rejection and the upper Bollinger Band. This zone now serves as formidable resistance. A notable divergence exists between the oversold KDJ reading (J=19.3) and moderately bearish RSI (42.3), suggesting momentum indicators lack uniform directional alignment. The absence of bullish divergence despite the sharp decline warrants caution for reversal traders. Probabilistically, the confluence of distribution-level volume, moving average breakdown, and bearish candlestick formation suggests near-term downside may persist toward the 292.23 Fibonacci level unless buyers reclaim 300.50 with conviction.