ADP Employment Hit Highest Growth in Over a Year Despite Storms and Strikes
1min read The latest data shows that despite the devastating storms in the southeastern United States and large-scale strikes, the ADP employment data in the United States has reached the highest level in over a year, indicating that the demand for workers by businesses is surprisingly strong.
Data released by ADP shows that the number of ADP employees in the United States increased by 233,000 in October, the largest increase since July 2023, far exceeding the expected 114,000, and the September data was revised up from 143,000 to 159,000.
ADP's Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, said that employment growth remained strong in October, even in the context of recovery after hurricanes. As the year draws to a close, the U.S. labor market has proven to be robust and broadly resilient.
The ADP data contradicts analysts' expectations of an economic slowdown in October, as two brutal hurricanes, Helene and Milton, ravaged the southeastern United States, with Florida and North Carolina being particularly hard hit.
Due to the large-scale strikes of port workers and Boeing mechanics, the job market was inevitably affected. Therefore, some economists believe that the October ADP employment report may be an outlier and not representative, and when the Federal Reserve holds its monetary policy meeting next week, they may essentially ignore this report.
However, ADP's report shows that the U.S. labor market has remained stable. In addition to a significant increase in the number of hires, wages also grew by 4.6% year-over-year, which is the lowest level since 2021.
The data shows that the education and health services industry added 53,000 people, trade/transportation/public utilities employment increased by 51,000 people, construction industry employment increased by 37,000 people, financial services industry employment increased by 11,000 people, and manufacturing was the only industry to lay off workers, losing 19,000 jobs.
New jobs were mainly concentrated in enterprises with more than 500 people, reaching 140,000; enterprises with fewer than 50 employees changed little, with only 4,000 people.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release a more comprehensive and highly anticipated October non-farm employment report, which is expected to show an increase of only 115,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1%.
However, there may be a significant difference between the ADP and non-farm employment reports, with the latter including government employment data. Goldman Sachs economists said that compared to the non-farm employment report that the government will release on Friday, these ADP data have historically been less sensitive to natural disasters and strikes.
