Adobe Stock Plunges 4.76% to Yearly Low as Bearish Signals Converge at $400 Resistance

Adobe (ADBE) shares declined 4.76% in the latest session, closing at $382.60 after trading between $381.80 and $399.67. This follows a volatile period where the stock retreated from a yearly high near $586 to current levels, reflecting shifting market sentiment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show bearish confirmation signals. The June 17th candle formed a long red body after rejecting the psychological $400 resistance, reinforcing this level as immediate resistance. The June 13th session (down 5.32% on high volume) established a strong bearish engulfing pattern near $400. Support emerges around $382-$380, aligning with the yearly low set on June 17th. Breakdown below $380 may accelerate selling toward $350.
Moving Average Theory
All key moving averages exhibit bearish alignment, confirming a strong downtrend. The 50-day MA ($423) crossed below the 100-day MA ($437) in early May, while both remain decisively under the descending 200-day MA ($480). Current price trades 25% below the 200-day MA, indicating entrenched bearish momentum. This configuration suggests sustained downward pressure absent a catalyst.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD maintains a bearish trajectory, with the signal line firmly above the MACD line in negative territory. Histogram bars show no signs of convergence, signaling persistent bearish momentum. KDJ oscillators align with this view: K-value (18) and D-value (24) remain deeply oversold but without bullish crossover. J-value (6) flatlines near historic lows, reflecting exhaustion but lacking reversal confirmation. Both oscillators caution against premature bullish interpretations despite oversold readings.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as bands widened significantly during the June 13th and 17th sell-offs. Price now hugs the lower band ($378), typically indicative of continuation patterns in downtrends. The absence of band contraction suggests no immediate volatility compression or reversal setup. Sustained trading below the lower band could foreshadow capitulation toward $350.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate volume analysis. The June 13th decline occurred on 10.6M shares—double the 30-day average—validating breakdown conviction. Recent bounces (e.g., June 16th +2.57%) transpired on below-average volume, underscoring weak buying interest. High-volume sell days coupled with low-volume rebounds reinforce bearish control.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (14-period) reads 29, technically oversold but contextually unreliable. Prior instances (notably March 2025) saw RSI remain oversold for extended periods during steep declines. Weekly RSI (36) shows no bullish divergence despite oversold conditions. This warns that oversold thresholds may be breached during strong downtrends before stabilization occurs.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the September 2024 high ($587) and June 2025 low ($382) as anchor points, key Fibonacci levels provide tactical targets:
- 23.6%: $425
- 38.2%: $456
- 50%: $485
Current rejection near the 23.6% level ($400) strengthens its resistance significance. The 38.2% retracement aligns with the 100-day MA ($437), creating a critical confluence zone for trend reversal validation.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
A significant confluence exists at $400, where psychological resistance, the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and the descending 50-day MA converge. Bearish consensus dominates across indicators, with notable absence of bullish divergences. The oversold RSI and KDJ readings contradict price action, as new lows occur without corresponding oscillator lows—a bearish continuation signal. Volume patterns consistently validate downward moves while invalidating recoveries.
Conclusion
Technical posture remains bearish, with Adobe trading at yearly lows amid confirmed downtrends. Oversold oscillators suggest potential for tactical bounces, but multi-indicator resistance near $400 and volume-supported distribution favor downside continuation. A sustained close above the 50-day MA ($423) is required to signal trend reversal. Until then, rallies toward $400 should be viewed as selling opportunities absent fundamental catalysts.