Adobe Soars 2.98% on Q4 Earnings Surge and AI Momentum – What’s Next for ADBE?

Summary
• Adobe (ADBE) surges 2.98% intraday to $353.36, hitting a 52-week high of $356.97
• Q4 revenue jumps 10% to $6.19B, with AI-driven ARR growth of 11.5% to $25.2B
• Semrush acquisition and Firefly AI adoption fuel investor optimism
Adobe’s stock is surging on a perfect storm of earnings outperformance, AI monetization progress, and strategic expansion. The $353.36 level marks a 2.98% gain from Thursday’s close, driven by a $6.19B revenue beat, 3x quarterly growth in AI feature usage, and a $1.9B Semrush acquisition to bolster marketing data capabilities. With 70M monthly active users and a 10.2% ARR growth guide for 2026, the stock is testing key technical levels amid a sector-wide AI renaissance.

Q4 Earnings and AI Integration Drive Adobe’s Rally
Adobe’s 2.98% intraday surge is anchored by a 10% revenue beat to $6.19B, 14% non-GAAP EPS growth to $5.50, and a 3x quarterly increase in AI feature usage across Creative Cloud. The company’s 11.5% annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth to $25.2B, coupled with a $1.9B Semrush acquisition to expand marketing data capabilities, has reignited investor confidence. Management highlighted that AI now accounts for over one-third of total ARR, with Firefly AI tools driving 35% YoY growth in monthly active users to 70M. These metrics validate Adobe’s ability to monetize AI while maintaining its creative software dominance, countering prior concerns about pricing pressure from AI-powered competitors.

Options and ETF Plays for Adobe’s AI-Driven Momentum
• 200-day average: 368.09 (above) • RSI: 68.35 (neutral) • MACD: 1.09 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 308.14–347.46 • Key support/resistance: 322.56–351.28
Adobe’s technicals show a short-term bullish trend with the 200-day MA acting as dynamic support. The RSI at 68.35 suggests no overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram at 3.47 indicates strong momentum. The Leverage Shares 2X Long ADBE Daily ETF (ADBG), up 5.59%, offers leveraged exposure to ADBE’s near-term volatility. For options, two contracts stand out:
• ADBE20251219C350: Call option with 33.16% IV, 37.23% leverage ratio, delta 0.597, theta -1.32, gamma 0.021, turnover $5.35M. This contract offers a 13.64% downside risk but high leverage for a 5% upside scenario (payoff: $26.68).
• ADBE20251219C355: Call option with 34.57% IV, 49.12% leverage ratio, delta 0.491, theta -1.19, gamma 0.021, turnover $507K. This contract balances moderate delta with high leverage (payoff: $21.68 on 5% upside).
Aggressive bulls should consider ADBE20251219C350 into a break above $356.97 (intraday high) or ADBE20251219C355 for a lower-cost, high-leverage play. Both options benefit from elevated gamma and theta decay, making them ideal for short-term directional bets.

Backtest Adobe Stock Performance
The backtest of the ADU's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is relatively high at 50.52%, the 10-day and 30-day win rates decline to 48.64% and 44.05%, respectively. The average returns over these periods are negative, with a maximum return of only 0.04% during the backtest period.

Adobe’s AI Bet Validates – Now the 52-Week High is in Reach
Adobe’s 2.98% rally validates its AI monetization strategy, with Firefly adoption and Semrush integration positioning it as a leader in creative and marketing AI. The 52-week high of $473.62 remains distant, but the 356.97 intraday high and 348.49 200D resistance are immediate targets. Investors should monitor the 333.79 intraday low as a critical support level. With Microsoft (MSFT) up 1.48% as the sector leader, Adobe’s AI-driven momentum could outpace broader software trends. Watch for a break above $356.97 or a close below $333.79 to dictate next steps.