Adobe’s Options Imbalance and AI-Driven Bull Case: A $350 Call Play for Friday’s Expiry

• Adobe (ADBE) trades at $332.13, down 0.44% on mixed technicals: short-term bullish but long-term bearish.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $350 and $340, while puts dominate at $315 and $325—hinting at a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
• Recent AI-driven product launches and a $5.99B Q3 revenue beat justify optimism, but Canva’s free app threat lingers.

Adobe’s stock is caught in a fascinating crossroads. On one hand, its AI-powered tools and Google Cloud partnership are fueling bullish momentum. On the other, options data reveals a bearish undercurrent. Here’s how to navigate the tension—and where the real money might be hiding.

The Call-Put Battle at $350 and $315

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s expiring calls see the highest open interest at $350 (2,228 contracts) and $340 (1,340), while puts peak at $315 (1,813) and $325 (1,230). This isn’t random. Bulls are hedging a potential breakout above $340, while bears are bracing for a drop below $327 (30D support). The next Friday’s data amplifies this: calls at $400 (3,243) and $350 (2,600) suggest long-term bullish bets, while puts at $300 (2,827) and $320 (2,453) signal deep-seated fear of a $300-level collapse.

The put/call ratio of 0.837 (puts: 222K, calls: 265K) leans slightly bullish, but don’t get too excited. High call OI at $350 means many traders are betting on a $350+ move by Friday. If Adobe cracks that level, the calls could ignite a short-term rally. But if it fails to hold $327, the puts might trigger a sharp sell-off. The risk? A false breakout above $340 could trap bullish options buyers, while a breakdown below $320 would validate the bear case.

AI News vs. Market Sentiment

Adobe’s recent headlines are a goldmine for bulls. Record Q3 revenue, a $20B RPO, and AI tools like Project Moonlight and Frame Forward are expanding its moat. Analysts are even penciling in 86% upside potential. But here’s the catch: Canva’s free Affinity-style app is nibbling at Adobe’s creative workflows. The market isn’t ignoring this. The heavy put OI at $315 and $320 suggests investors are hedging against a potential price war or subscription churn.

The key question is whether Adobe’s AI-driven growth can offset competitive pressures. Right now, the stock is trading near its 30D support ($327) but far below its 200D MA ($379). If the AI narrative holds, the $340–$350 range could become a new floor. But if Canva’s threat escalates, the $315–$320 level might become a ceiling.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Friday, Puts for Next Week

For options traders, the most compelling play is the $350 call expiring Friday. With 2,228 contracts in open interest, this strike is a magnet for momentum. If Adobe closes above $350, the call could surge 20–30% in a day. Entry: $332.13 (current price). Target: $350. Stop-loss: $327 (30D support).

For the bearish angle, the $315 put expiring Friday offers downside protection. If Adobe dips below $327, this put could gain 15–20% value. Entry: $332.13. Target: $315. Stop-loss: $340 (resistance).

Stock traders should consider buying near $327 if support holds, with a target at $340. Alternatively, short the stock above $351 (200D support/resistance) with a stop at $340. The 30D RSI at 32.87 suggests oversold conditions, but the MACD (-4.37) and Bollinger Bands (current price near middle) hint at a potential consolidation phase.

Volatility on the Horizon

Adobe’s story isn’t just about numbers—it’s about the AI arms race. The company’s partnerships with Google Cloud and its AI tools are reshaping creative workflows, but competition is heating up. The next few weeks will test whether the market values Adobe’s moat over Canva’s disruption.

For now, the options data tells a tale of cautious optimism. Bulls are betting on a $350+ move, while bears are bracing for a $315-level collapse. The key is to stay nimble. If Adobe’s AI narrative holds, the $340–$350 range could become a new floor. But if the stock breaks below $327, the puts at $315 might trigger a sharp selloff. Either way, the next Friday’s expiry could be a pivotal moment for ADBE.