Adobe’s Options Imbalance and AI-Driven Bull Case: A $315–$360 Trade Window

• Adobe (ADBE) trades at $323.54, down 1.16% from $327.35, with bearish technicals but AI-driven news optimism.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $390 and $360, while puts cluster at $315 and $310.
• The put/call ratio (0.81) favors calls, but bearish momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) suggest caution.
• Adobe’s AI partnerships and product launches could fuel a rebound, but technicals warn of near-term risks.

The Big Picture: A Tug-of-War Between AI Optimism and Bearish Momentum

Adobe’s stock is caught in a tight battle. On one side, a flood of AI-driven news—new tools, Google Cloud partnerships, and record earnings—paints a bullish story. On the other, technical indicators like a bearish Kline pattern, a negative MACD (-3.95), and RSI near 46 (neutral but trending lower) hint at short-term selling pressure. The options market reflects this tension: traders are buying calls for upside potential but also hedging with puts. The key question is whether Adobe’s AI narrative can overcome the bearish technicals—or if the stock will test critical support levels first.

Options Sentiment: Calls for AI Hype, Puts for Safety

Let’s break down the options data. For Friday’s expirations, the top OTM calls are at $390 (OI: 2,234) and $360 (OI: 1,436), while puts cluster at $315 (OI: 1,073) and $310 (OI: 1,023). This suggests two camps: aggressive bulls betting on a $360+ rebound and cautious bears hedging a drop to $310. The put/call ratio (0.81) favors calls, but the sheer volume of puts at $315–$310 indicates a floor many traders expect. For next Friday’s expirations, the call-heavy $350 (OI: 1,172) and $340 (OI: 591) strikes show lingering optimism, while puts at $315 (OI: 1,613) reinforce the $315 support level as a key battleground.

The AI Narrative vs. Technical Realities

Adobe’s recent news is undeniably bullish. Record earnings, AI-powered tools like Project Frame Forward, and a deepened Google Cloud partnership position the company as a leader in creative AI. But technicals tell a different story. The stock is below its 30D ($344.95), 100D ($356.82), and 200D ($381.68) moving averages, with Bollinger Bands suggesting a potential bounce near the lower band ($321.34). The RSI at 45.93 isn’t extreme, but the MACD histogram (-1.65) is trending lower, signaling weakening momentum. This creates a paradox: fundamentals scream buy, but technicals warn of a pullback before a breakout.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Balancing AI Hope and Technical Caution

For options traders, the $360 call (next Friday’s $360 strike) is a high-conviction play if Adobe’s AI-driven rally gains steam. A bull call spread using the $340 and $360 strikes could cap risk while capitalizing on a rebound. For the stock, consider a long entry near $321.34 (Bollinger lower band) with a target at $340 (200D support-turned-resistance). If the stock breaks below $315, a bear put spread using the $315 and $320 strikes could hedge downside risk. Here’s the breakdown:

• Options Play: Buy ADBE 11/15 340C + Sell 360C (bull call spread). Max profit if ADBE hits $360 by expiration.
• Stock Play: Buy ADBE near $321.34 (Bollinger lower band) with a stop-loss at $315. Target: $340 (200D MA).

Volatility on the Horizon: A $315–$360 Range to Watch

Adobe’s next move hinges on two levels: $315 (key support) and $360 (bullish threshold). A close above $340 would signal a shift in momentum, validating the AI-driven bull case. Below $315, the stock risks a deeper correction toward $300. The options market is pricing in a 50/50 battle—calls for AI optimism, puts for safety. Traders should monitor volume and RSI for clues. If RSI crosses 50 and MACD turns positive, the bearish trend could reverse. But until then, the $315–$360 range will define Adobe’s near-term story.