Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Key $350 Call Battle – Here’s How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound

• Adobe’s stock (ADBE) fell 1.3% to $313.89, trading below its 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $350 and $400 strikes, while puts dominate at $300 and $310.
• The Semrush acquisition and AI expansion plans could spark a rebound, but technicals hint at near-term bearish pressure.

Adobe’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war between bearish technicals and bullish options positioning. Here’s what traders need to know: the stock shows upside potential if it breaks above $313.80, but risks further declines if support at $313.52 fails. The options market is pricing in a high-stakes battle at the $350 level—let’s break it down.

The $350 Call Wall: A Bullish Bet or a Bear Trap?

Options traders are piling into out-of-the-money (OTM) calls at the $350 strike, with 3,635 contracts open for Friday expiration. That’s the highest open interest (OI) among all OTM calls this week. Meanwhile, puts at $300 and $310 have 2,915 and 2,517 OI, respectively. The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.84, suggesting a slight bullish tilt.

But here’s the catch: Adobe’s RSI is at 25.9, deep in oversold territory, and its MACD histogram is negative (-1.27). The stock is trading below its 200D MA ($376.68) and Bollinger Bands’ lower bound ($313.80). This means the $350 call wall could act as a psychological magnet—if the stock rallies, it might attract buyers. But if it fails to break above $313.80, the bearish trend could resume.

Block trading data shows no major institutional moves, so the options activity is likely retail and speculative. The risk? If Adobe’s AI-driven growth story falters, the $350 calls could expire worthless.

Semrush Acquisition: Strategic Move or Short-Term Headache?

Adobe’s $1.9B Semrush buyout is a big bet on AI-driven marketing. The deal aims to integrate Semrush’s SEO tools with Adobe’s Experience Cloud, but the stock has fallen 37% over 12 months. Why? Investors are skeptical about monetizing AI tools in a crowded market. Competitors like Canva and Figma are eating into Adobe’s design software dominance.

Yet the news isn’t all bad. Adobe’s Q3 FY2025 results showed $5.99B revenue, and its Firefly AI tools have generated $5B in ARR. The company is also expanding into non-English AI markets via a Humain partnership. These moves could pay off in 2026, but the stock’s near-term pain reflects doubts about execution risks and integration complexity.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the Cautious

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the $350 call (Friday expiration) if ADBE breaks above $313.80. The strike has high OI and aligns with the Bollinger Bands’ upper bound ($359.89). A close above $313.80 could trigger a rebound toward $333 (30D support).
• Bearish Play: Sell the $310 put (Friday expiration) if the stock dips below $313.52. The put has 2,517 OI and could profit if the stock tests $300 support.

For stock traders:

• Long Entry: Consider buying ADBE near $313.80 (lower Bollinger Band) if it holds. Target $333 (30D support) and $347 (200D support).
• Short-Term Exit: If the stock breaks below $313.52, tighten stops to $310.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Technical Realities

Adobe’s story is a classic case of “buy the dip” vs. “sell the rally.” The options market is pricing in a $350+ rebound by Friday, but technicals warn of a bearish trap. The key is timing: if the stock closes above $313.80 this week, the $350 call could ignite a short-term rally. But if it stays below $313.52, the bearish trend may persist.

Bottom line: This is a high-risk, high-reward setup. The Semrush deal could pay off in 2026, but near-term volatility is likely. Traders should size positions carefully and watch for a breakout above $313.80—or a breakdown below $313.52. Either way, Adobe’s AI ambitions are far from over.