Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Key $290-$310 Battle: How to Trade the AI-Driven Volatility Play

• ADBE trades at $301.67, 0.65% above previous close, amid oversold RSI (20.06) and bearish MACD (-12.49)
• Put/call open interest ratio at 0.86 shows bearish skew, with 6,319 puts at $290 (next Friday expiry) dwarfing call activity
• Block trades reveal $1.85M bet on ADBE20260320C310 and $1.05M on ADBE20260320C330, hinting at March 2026 bullish positioning

Here's the play: ADBE is trapped in a 52-week trading range ($288-$465) with technical indicators screaming for a breakout. The options market is pricing in a high-stakes tug-of-war between $290 support and $310 resistance—two levels where massive open interest (OI) could force a directional move. With AI-driven earnings catalysts and mixed analyst ratings, today's $301.67 price sits at a crossroads between short-term bearish momentum and long-term AI optimism.

The $290-$310 Options Showdown: Where Smart Money is Bidding

The options chain tells a story of fear and hope. For next Friday's expiry, 6,319 puts at $290 (ADBE20260130P290) dominate the put side—nearly 3x the next largest put at $285. This suggests institutional players are hedging against a breakdown below $300, especially with Bollinger Bands showing the 20-day lower band at $282.27. On the call side, 2,185 contracts at $310 (ADBE20260130C310) represent the most bullish positioning, with 30-day moving average support at $335.69 creating a steep uphill battle.

Don't ignore the block trades: A $1.85M purchase of ADBE20260320C310 and $1.05M in ADBE20260320C330 (March 2026 expiry) suggests big players are banking on a multi-month rebound. These strikes align with analyst price targets ($402-$436) and Firefly AI adoption timelines. The risk? If Adobe's Q1 earnings miss or AI partnerships stall, these long-dated calls could become a drag.

Earnings Optimism vs. Analyst Skepticism: Can AI Deliver?

Adobe's Q4 results ($6.19B revenue) and Q1 guidance ($5.85 EPS) paint a bullish picture, but the stock's 31% 52-week drop tells a different story. The recent AI partnerships with Hollywood studios and enterprise platforms are strategic masterstrokes—but execution matters. Goldman Sachs' "Sell" rating ($290 target) contrasts with Wells Fargo's $470 optimism, reflecting the market's uncertainty about AI monetization. The key question: Will Firefly Foundry's IP-safe tools drive enough enterprise adoption to offset SaaS margin pressures? For now, the options market is pricing in a 45% upside potential (to $436) but a 3% downside risk (to $290).

3 Specific Trades for Today's Volatility

1. Bull Call Spread: Buy ADBE20260130C310 (OI: 2,185) at $1.25 and sell ADBE20260130C320 (OI: 580) at $0.80. This $0.45 debit captures upside if ADBE breaks above $310 (current price is $301.67). Target: $320 strike if price gaps up on earnings.

1. Put Hedge: Buy ADBE20260130P290 (OI: 6,319) at $3.50 if ADBE dips below $303.84 (intraday high). This protects against a breakdown to the 200D MA at $357.84—though the lower Bollinger Band at $282.27 offers a safety net.

1. Stock Entry: Buy ADBE at $300.50 (today's open) with a stop-loss at $299.00. First target: reclaim $303.84 intraday high; second target: test 30D MA at $352.16 if AI news catalyzes a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 72 hours will test ADBE's resolve. A close above $310 would validate the March block traders' bullish thesis, while a drop below $290 could trigger a cascade of put assignments. With Q1 earnings in February and Firefly Foundry's Hollywood rollout in Q1 2026, this is a stock at a crossroads. For now, the $290-$310 range is the gravitational center—trade it like a tightrope walk between AI optimism and SaaS reality.