Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Deepening Bearish Sentiment: Put OI Surpasses Calls at $300 Strike – Here’s How to Position for the Drop

• Adobe shares plunge 4.5% to $313.00, breaking below key Bollinger Bands and 200D MA.
• Options market shows 0.89 put/call OI ratio, with $300 puts (4,443 OI) dominating this Friday’s expirations.
• Analyst downgrades from Goldman Sachs and Oppenheimer highlight AI monetization struggles and margin risks.

The stock is in freefall, and options traders are betting big on more pain.Bearish OI Clusters at $300 Put: A Short-Squeeze Play?

The options data tells a clear story: sellers are bracing for a sharp drop. This Friday’s $300 puts (ADBE20260116P300) lead the pack with 4,443 open contracts, nearly double the next put’s 2,477 OI. Meanwhile, call buyers are clinging to hope—$400 calls (4,051 OI) and $500 calls (2,746 OI) dominate, but these strikes are 25%+ above current price.

This imbalance suggests two things: 1) institutional money is hedging downside risk at $300, and 2) retail traders are chasing a rebound that’s unlikely before earnings. The MACD (-1.88) and RSI (21.37) confirm the technical case for a breakdown below $312.28 (intraday low).

News Flow: Analysts Are in a Death Spiral

Adobe’s AI-driven growth narrative is crumbling. Oppenheimer downgraded to "Perform," Goldman Sachs to "Strong Sell," and BMO cut price targets to $400. The recurring theme? Struggling to monetize Firefly and other AI tools.

Investor sentiment is key here. Adobe’s stock is trading 30% below its 52-week high, and the CAO’s recent insider sale adds to the unease. If the March 12 earnings report fails to show progress on AI monetization, the $300 level could become a magnet for panic selling.

Actionable Trades: Short the Drop, Hedge the ReboundFor Options Traders:

• Bearish Play: Sell ADBE20260116P300 puts if price holds above $312.28. Target $280–$290 if the stock breaks below $305.
• Bullish Hedge: Buy ADBE20260123P310 puts for next Friday if a rebound fails.

For Stock Traders:

• Short Entry: $313.00 with a stop above $326.93 (lower Bollinger Band). Target $290–$300.
• Bullish Alternative: Buy a $300/$350 call spread (ADBE20260116C300 + ADBE20260116C350) if you expect a post-earnings rebound.

Volatility on the Horizon: Earnings as a Binary Event

Adobe’s March 12 earnings report will be the ultimate stress test. If the company can’t show a path to monetizing Firefly or address margin pressures, the $300 puts could blow out. But if they surprise with AI adoption metrics, the $350 calls might still have legs.

For now, the data screams caution. The options market isn’t just bearish—it’s terrified. Position accordingly.