Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Deepening Bearish Sentiment: Key Put Strikes and a $300 Put Block Trade Highlight Downside Risks

• Adobe’s stock is down 1.5% at $305.25, with RSI at 13.56 and MACD -4.08, signaling oversold bearish momentum.
• Options market shows put open interest (225,955) exceeds calls (262,755), but OTM puts at $300 and $290 dominate this Friday’s expirations.
• A massive 450-lot block trade in the ADBE20260515P300 put suggests institutional bets on prolonged weakness.

The big picture? Adobe’s technicals and options data align with a high-probability downside scenario. Here’s why traders should pay attention.The Put-Heavy Options Setup and Whale Moves

Let’s start with the numbers: this Friday’s OTM puts have 4,421 open contracts at $300 and 2,186 at $290. That’s not just bearish—it’s aggressively bearish. Meanwhile, call open interest is spread thin across higher strikes like $400 and $500, which feel like long shots in this environment.

The ADBE20260515P300 block trade—450 contracts traded for $882,000—is the real red flag. Think of it like a whale testing the waters: if big money is betting Adobe will dip below $300 by May, it’s a sign they expect structural weakness, not just a short-term dip.

Why This Matters for Traders

If the $300 level breaks, those puts could ignite a cascade of forced selling. But there’s a catch: Adobe’s 200-day Bollinger Band support sits at $319.22. A bounce here might tempt bulls—but don’t count on it. The RSI is screaming oversold, but oversold doesn’t always mean a rebound. Look at the 55% drop from 2021’s peak; this stock is in a different league now.

News and Sentiment: A Perfect Storm for Pessimism

The recent downgrades from Oppenheimer, BMO, and Goldman Sachs aren’t just noise. They’re a direct hit at Adobe’s core narrative: AI-driven growth. Apple’s Creator Studio and Canva’s rise aren’t hypothetical threats—they’re real, pricing-competitive tools eating into Adobe’s creative software dominance.

Here’s the kicker: the falling wedge pattern mentioned in the news could suggest a rebound. But with analyst sentiment this sour and options data so bearish, that wedge might just be a trap. Investors are pricing in a future where Adobe’s premium pricing power erodes, and that’s hard to fight in the short term.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Puts and Precision Entries

For options traders, the ADBE20260116P300 (this Friday’s $300 put) and ADBE20260123P290 (next Friday’s $290 put) are your best bets. Why? High open interest means liquidity, and the block trade validates institutional interest. If Adobe closes below $305 by Friday, these could see sharp moves.

Stock traders: consider entry near $303.50 (today’s intraday low) if the $319.22 Bollinger Band support holds. Set a tight stop-loss above $309.73 (today’s high). A break below $300 would validate the puts and open the door to testing the 200D support at $352.01—yes, that’s a higher level, but in a bearish trend, higher supports become resistance.

Volatility on the Horizon: Preparing for Adobe’s Next Move

Adobe isn’t just fighting AI upstarts—it’s battling a narrative shift. The options market is pricing in a future where $300 is a floor, not a target. While the 9% revenue growth projections for 2026 are technically bullish, they’re already discounted into the stock’s 13.9 forward P/E. This isn’t a growth story anymore; it’s a value trap for the unprepared.

Bottom line: If you’re long ADBE, consider hedging with the ADBE20260116P300. If you’re short, the $290 put next week offers a cleaner entry. Either way, this stock isn’t finding a bottom anytime soon.