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Adobe’s options market is sending a clear message: traders are leaning bullish, but with a wary eye on the $320 psychological level. The stock’s 0.93% intraday gain today feels like a breath of fresh air after a 37% YTD slump, but the technicals and options data tell a more nuanced story. Let’s break it down.
Where the Money Is: Call OI Dominates at $340 and $350The options chain for this Friday (2025-11-28) shows a striking imbalance. Call open interest peaks at the $340 strike (OI: 1,321) and $350 (OI: 1,277), while puts cluster at $310 (OI: 1,174) and $300 (OI: 972). This isn’t just a numbers game—it’s a sentiment snapshot. Traders are hedging against a potential rebound but aren’t fully committing to a bullish breakout. The put/call ratio of 0.84 (favoring calls) reinforces this, suggesting a cautious optimism.
But here’s the catch: the RSI at 41.10 and MACD histogram (-0.73) still point to a bearish bias. The stock is trading below its 30D ($334.89) and 200D ($373.57) moving averages, which means any rally might face resistance at the 344.67 upper Bollinger Band. If ADBE can’t break through that, the $317.52 support level (today’s low) becomes critical.
The Semrush Deal: Strategic Move or Short-Term Headache?Adobe’s $1.9 billion Semrush acquisition is the elephant in the room. On the surface, it’s a bold play to bolster AI-driven marketing tools. But the stock’s 52-week low hit just days after the announcement shows investors are skeptical about integration risks and Adobe’s ability to compete with AI-native platforms like Canva. Analysts are split: Barclays raised its target to $465, while UBS cut to $375. This duality is reflected in the options market—calls are betting on long-term growth, but puts are guarding against near-term volatility.
The good news? Adobe’s Q3 earnings showed AI-influenced ARR hitting $5 billion, and its 45.5% operating margin is a fortress. If the Semrush integration goes smoothly, the $328.30 middle Bollinger Band could become a floor for a rebound. But if execution falters, the $311.93 lower band might test patience.
Trade Setups: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the PragmaticFor options traders, the call stands out. With 1,321 contracts open, it’s a liquidity-rich bet for a potential 3.5% move to $340. If you’re bullish but cautious, the (next Friday’s 332.5 call) offers a longer runway. For downside protection, the put (OI: 1,174) is a solid hedge if the stock dips below $317.52.
Stock traders should consider a long entry near $317.52 (today’s low) with a target at $328.30 (middle Bollinger Band). A stop-loss below $311.93 would protect against a breakdown. For a short-term play, a put at $310 could capitalize on a pullback, but only if the 30D support (353.26–354.21) holds.
Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Hopes and Bearish RealitiesAdobe’s story is a tug-of-war between long-term AI potential and near-term execution risks. The options market is pricing in a 36–45% upside over 12 months, but technicals suggest a bumpy path. Traders who can stomach the volatility might find value in the $340 call or a long stock position near $317.52. But don’t ignore the puts—this stock isn’t out of bear territory yet. The key is to stay nimble, with clear exit points if the $320 level crumbles. After all, Adobe’s next move could be a masterclass in strategic AI integration—or a cautionary tale about overpaying for growth.

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