Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key $400 Call OI and $300 Put Risk Shape Trade Setup for Dec 19, 2025

• KeyBanc downgraded ADBE to Underweight ($310 PT) despite Q4 beat
• AI partnership with Runway highlights growth bets, but margin risks linger
• Call OI dominance at $400 strike (11,674 contracts) vs. put OI peak at $300

Adobe’s stock is dancing on a tightrope today. The price is barely below yesterday’s close, but options traders are betting big on both sides. Here’s the takeaway: upside potential exists near $360–$400, but a breakdown below $345 could trigger panic. Let’s break down why.

Bullish Bets and Bearish Safeguards: What OTM Options Reveal

The options market is a chessboard of expectations. Right now, ADBE’s call open interest is skewed sharply toward the $400 strike (11,674 contracts), with another 9,049 at $450. That’s not just noise—it’s a signal. Traders are pricing in a potential pop above $360, likely fueled by Adobe’s AI-driven video partnership with Runway and its recent earnings beat. But don’t ignore the puts: the $300 strike has 5,499 open puts, a stark reminder that KeyBanc’s bearish call and weak guidance could drag the stock down if AI hype falters.

The put/call ratio (0.84) leans bullish, but it’s not a free pass. If ADBE cracks the 200-day moving average ($365.39) or the lower Bollinger Band ($305.05), that put OI could turn into a stampede. No block trades to watch, but the next Friday’s options ($360 call at 1,141 OI) hint at lingering long-term optimism.

News vs. Options: AI Hype vs. Margin Realities

Adobe’s Q4 results were a mixed bag. Earnings beat estimates, but guidance for flat ARR growth and contracting margins has analysts split. The AI partnership with Runway is a strategic win, but KeyBanc’s downgrade underscores a harsh truth: investors are pricing in competition from Meta, Google, and others. The stock’s 81.79% institutional ownership shows big players still believe in the long game, but retail traders might be skittish after the recent downgrade chatter.

Here’s the twist: the options data and news aren’t at war—they’re in a tug-of-war. The $400 call OI reflects bets on AI-driven growth, while the $300 put OI mirrors fears of margin compression. If Adobe’s AI tools gain traction, the bulls win. If execution stumbles, the bears pounce.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders:

• Buy ADBE20251219C360 (next Friday’s $360 call) if ADBE breaks above $356.80. The 1,141 OI suggests liquidity, and a close above the 200DMA ($365.39) could fuel a rally toward $400.
• Sell ADBE20251219P345 (this Friday’s $345 put) if ADBE holds above $348.02 (200D support). The 1,961 OI makes this a liquid play to capitalize on short-term bearish bets.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $327.37 (30D resistance) if ADBE rebounds from the $326.49 support level. Target $356.80 (intraday high) or $365.24 (Bollinger upper band) if the AI narrative gains steam.
• Stop-loss below $326.49 to avoid a breakdown into the $305.05 lower band. A close below $345 would validate KeyBanc’s bearish thesis.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Margin Realities

Adobe’s story is a classic case of “growth at a cost.” The options market is pricing in a best-case scenario where AI partnerships drive revenue, but the news flow warns of margin pressures. Traders need to watch two things: 1) Whether ADBE can hold above $348.02 (200D support) to avoid a test of the $300 puts, and 2) If the AI partnership with Runway sparks a rally in Creative Cloud adoption. For now, the $360 call and $345 put strikes are your best bets to play either outcome.