Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $400 Dominate as RSI Hints Overbought Pressure

• Adobe trades at $354.22, down 0.12% from its open but holding above key 30D support at $326.49.
• Options market shows 32% more open interest in calls than puts, with 11,682 calls at the $400 strike (this Friday’s top OTM call).
• Q4 earnings beat and $5.85–$5.90 Q1 guidance fuel optimism, but RSI at 76.17 warns of near-term volatility.

Here’s the thing: Adobe’s options market is screaming upside focus, but technicals hint at a potential breather. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls, But Puts Signal Caution

The options chain tells a clear story. This Friday’s top OTM call is the ADBE20251219C400 with 11,682 open contracts—nearly double the next strike. That’s not just noise; it’s a bet that ADBE could surge 13% to $400 by expiration. The next big call strikes at $450 (9,049 OI) and $420 (4,615 OI) reinforce this bullish setup.

But don’t ignore the puts. The ADBE20251219P350 strike has 3,732 open puts, and the $300 strike (5,501 OI) shows some downside hedging. The put/call ratio of 0.84 (calls > puts) confirms the bias, but the heavy put activity at $350 suggests a few traders are bracing for a pullback.

No block trades to report, so this is retail and institutional money quietly aligning on the same thesis: a push higher.

Earnings Pop Meets Mixed Analyst Signals

Adobe’s Q4 results were solid—$5.50 EPS vs. $5.40 expected—and FY2026 guidance of $23.30–$23.50 EPS implies steady growth. But Mizuho’s Hold rating with a $387 target (vs. $417.93 average) adds nuance. The market isn’t pricing in a breakout just yet; the $387 level is 9.5% above today’s price.

Meanwhile, technicals are conflicted. The RSI at 76.17 is overbought, and the stock is trading near the upper Bollinger Band at $362.61. Think of it like a sprinter hitting top speed—eventually, they’ll need to catch their breath. If ADBE can’t hold above its 30D MA ($332.28), the $348–$351 resistance zone (200D MA) could cap gains.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy ADBE20251219C360 (this Friday’s $360 call) if the stock holds above $332.28. With the 50-day MA at $333.26 acting as support, a close above $358.34 (intraday high) could trigger a rally toward $387.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy ADBE20251226P350 (next Friday’s $350 put) if the RSI breaks 65. This gives downside protection while keeping the clock open for a rebound.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying ADBE near $332.28 if it holds above the 30D MA. Target $365 (middle Bollinger Band) as a first test of momentum.
• Stop: Exit if the price dips below $326.49 (30D support) or if the RSI drops below 55.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Adobe’s story is one of steady growth, but the market isn’t pricing in a home run. The options data and technicals suggest a measured bullish case: enough optimism to push toward $387, but enough caution to expect a consolidation phase.

Bottom line: This isn’t a "buy and forget" trade. Watch the $332.28 support like a hawk. If it holds, the bulls have a clear path. If it breaks? The puts at $350 and $330 could become your best friends. Either way, the next 72 hours will tell us if Adobe’s rally is a sprint or a marathon.