Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $400–$450 Dominate as Earnings Loom

• ADBE surges 1.75% to $345.07, trading near 200D MA resistance at $369.09.
• Options data shows 0.83 Put/Call ratio (call-heavy open interest) with 12,202 contracts at ADBE20251219C400.
• Analysts at Jefferies and Mizuho target $450–$590, but insider selling and AI risks linger.

Adobe’s stock is dancing on a tightrope today. On one hand, the price action shows a short-term bullish Kline pattern and a 1.75% intraday gain. On the other, the long-term MACD (-1.06) and 200D MA ($369.09) hint at unresolved bearish pressure. But here’s the kicker: options traders are betting big on a breakout. The call/put open interest ratio (0.83) and the sheer volume at ADBE20251219C400 ($400 strike) scream that someone’s prepping for a rally. Let’s unpack why this matters.

Where the Money Is: Calls at $400–$450 Outshine Puts at $300

The options chain tells a clear story. For next Friday’s expiration (Dec 19), ADBE20251219C400 leads with 12,202 open contracts—nearly double the next highest call (ADBE20251219C450 at 8,986). This isn’t just noise. When retail and institutional players pile into the same strike, it often precedes a price move. The $400–$450 range represents a 16–25% upside from today’s price, suggesting buyers are pricing in a post-earnings pop or a broader AI-driven rebound.

On the put side, ADBE20251219P300 (5,750 OI) and ADBE20251219P330 (1,744 OI) show hedging activity. But here’s the rub: the put/call imbalance (0.83) means the market is more bullish than bearish. That’s not to say a drop isn’t possible—Bollinger Bands show the lower band at $309.82, and the 30D support at $326.65 is fragile. But the call-heavy positioning implies sellers are either defensive or opportunistic.

News vs. Options: Analyst Hype Meets Real-World Risks

Analysts are all over Adobe. Jefferies’ Brent Thill (5-star track record) and Mizuho’s Gregg Moskowitz both slapped “Buy” ratings, with price targets up to $590. That’s a 70% upside from current levels. But here’s the catch: Adobe’s insider selling (149 shares sold by SVP Jillian Forusz) and AI-related headwinds (generative tools threatening Creative Cloud’s edge) aren’t just noise. The DCF analysis pegs intrinsic value at $525.66, but that’s predicated on steady cash flow growth—something that could stall if AI adoption slows.

The options market isn’t ignoring this. The heavy call buying at $400–$450 assumes Adobe can navigate these risks and deliver on its AI integration promises. If earnings tomorrow (Dec 10) show stronger-than-expected revenue (Q4 guidance hints at 10.7% growth), those calls could pay off. But if AI concerns dominate the narrative, the puts at $300 might get a boost.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $400, Stock Breakouts, and Puts for the Cautious

Let’s get tactical. For options traders:

• Buy ADBE20251219C400 if the stock breaks above $348.49 (200D support/resistance zone). Target $400 for breakeven, with $450 as a profit zone.
• Sell ADBE20251219P330 if the stock holds above $338.48 (intraday low). This gives you a 1.7% buffer below current price.

For stock players:

• Enter long near $338.48 (intraday low) with a stop below $327.60 (30D support). Target $350 (200D MA) first, then $369.09 (200D MA).
• Short near $348.49 if the 200D MA acts as resistance. Target $326.65 (30D support) with a tight stop at $351.28.

Volatility on the Horizon: Earnings and AI’s Double-Edged Sword

Adobe’s Q4 earnings tomorrow are a binary event. If revenue beats estimates ($5.99B last quarter) and AI integration news is bullish, the $400–$450 calls could explode. But if the market reacts to AI risks or weaker-than-expected guidance, the puts at $300 might see a surge. Either way, the options data shows conviction—just pick your side before the dice roll. The key takeaway? This isn’t a “buy and hold” play. It’s a high-stakes poker game where timing and execution matter more than fundamentals alone.