Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Bias Near $330–$340, But Deep Puts at $250 Hint at Hidden Tail Risk

• ADBE trades at $325.13, up 0.7% from open, with Bollinger Bands squeezing between $311.69 and $341.26
• Calls dominate open interest (put/call ratio: 0.82) with heavy concentration at $332.5 and $340 strikes
• Extreme downside hedge: $250 puts (next Friday expiry) hold 1,409 open contracts, 3x the next put in line

Here’s the thing: Adobe’s options market is sending a mixed but actionable message. While near-term bulls are stacking up calls just above current price levels, a single deep put strike suggests traders are bracing for a black swan event. Let’s break down what this means for your strategy.

Bullish Pressure at $330–$340, But Downside Protection Lingers

Looking at this Friday’s options chain, the ADBE20251205C33250 and ADBE20251205C34000 calls dominate open interest. That’s not accidental—these strikes align with Adobe’s 30-day moving average (334.24) and a key psychological round number. Think of it like a crowd of traders all holding hands to push the stock higher before expiration.

But don’t ignore the puts. The ADBE20251205P31500 and ADBE20251205P31000 strikes have 662 and 626 open contracts respectively. That’s a hedge against a pullback to the 200-day MA (351.84) failing and triggering a retest of the $311.69 Bollinger Band support. The RSI at 44.85 isn’t screaming oversold, so a bounce here isn’t guaranteed.

What’s wilder? Next Friday’s ADBE20251212P25000 puts hold 1,409 open contracts. That’s 25% below current price and 15% below the lower Bollinger Band. No recent news explains this—so is it a macro hedge (tech sector rotation?), a secret short squeeze play, or just noise? Either way, it’s a red flag for extreme downside scenarios.

No Material News, But Options Tell a Story

The lack of headlines means fundamentals aren’t driving this setup. Adobe’s last earnings (Nov 2025) guided for AI tool adoption, but that’s old news. What matters now is technical positioning. The MACD (-6.14) and 200-day MA (372.17) still point to long-term pressure, but short-term bulls are betting on a rebound off the 30-day MA (334.24). If Adobe closes above $335 this week, that could trigger a short-covering rally.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Gamma Scalping, Puts for Insurance

• Aggressive Call Play: Buy ADBE20251205C33250 (this Friday expiry) if price breaks $327.50. Target $335–$340 for 20–40% gains before decay kicks in.
• Conservative Put Hedge: Buy ADBE20251212P31500 (next Friday expiry) to protect a long stock position. It caps losses if the $311.69 support fails.
• Stock Entry: Consider buying ADBE near $322–$324 if it holds above the 20-period EMA. First target: reclaim $330; second target: close above 30-day MA at $334.24.

Volatility on the Horizon

Adobe isn’t screaming for a breakout, but the options market is setting up for one. The key question: Will the $330–$340 call buyers get their wish, or will the $250 puts prove prescient? My bias? A short-term rebound to $335–$338 is likely, but the long-term bearish trend (200-day MA above price) means this could just be a breather before the next leg down. Either way, the options activity gives you clear levels to act—just keep an eye on that $250 put. It’s not normal, and that’s worth noting.