Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal $315 Put Pressure as AI Hype Faces Reality Check – Here’s How to Play the Dilemma

• Adobe trades at $332.02, up 0.96% with volume at 1.06M shares
• Options data shows 2088 open interest at $350 call (Friday expiry) and 1816 at $315 put
• RSI at 21.64 suggests oversold conditions, but MACD (-5.06) warns of bearish momentum
• AI-driven news flow clashes with bearish technicals: can Adobe’s bullish bets hold?

Adobe’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war between AI optimism and bearish technicals. The options market is screaming caution—put open interest dominates at key support levels like $315, while calls at $350 hint at a potential rally. But here’s the twist: Adobe’s recent AI announcements (Google Cloud integration, Firefly 5, YouTube Shorts tools) could spark a breakout… or a breakdown. Let’s break down what traders should watch.

The Options Imbalance: A Bearish Setup with Hidden Bullish Triggers

The options chain tells a story of fear and hope. For Friday expiry, the $315 put (1816 OI) and $350 call (2088 OI) are the most watched strikes. This suggests traders are hedging against a drop below $315 while betting on a rebound above $350. The put/call ratio of 0.83 (put OI: 213K vs call OI: 257K) confirms bearish sentiment, but the heavy call OI at $350 isn’t just noise—it’s a price level where big money sees a catalyst.

But here’s the rub: Adobe’s 200-day MA at $380.60 is a massive overhang. If the stock can’t break above $340.92 (Bollinger Middle Band), the bearish trend will likely continue. The $327.60–326.95 support zone is critical. A break below that could trigger a test of the $318.58 lower Bollinger Band.

AI Hype vs. Market Realism: Can Adobe’s News Offset the Bearish Bias?

Adobe’s AI announcements are impressive—Google Cloud integration, Firefly 5, and YouTube Shorts tools. But the market isn’t buying it yet. The RSI at 21.64 suggests oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram (-1.83) shows momentum is still fading. The key question: Will enterprise adoption of these tools translate to revenue growth, or will competitors like Canva’s new Affinity-style app erode Adobe’s edge?

The news flow is a double-edged sword. Analysts are bullish on Adobe’s AI strategy, but the stock’s 9.0% annual revenue growth target feels optimistic against current macroeconomic headwinds. The $29.3B FY25 revenue target is a big ask if creative software adoption slows. Traders need to watch whether the AI-driven narrative can overcome the bearish technicals.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Play the Options Imbalance and Key Levels

For options traders, the most compelling setup is a $315 put debit spread (Friday expiry). Buy the $315 put and sell the $300 put to cap risk. If Adobe breaks below $327.60, this trade could profit from the $315 support test. Alternatively, a $335–$350 call vertical (Friday expiry) offers a bullish play if the stock rallies on AI-driven news.

Stock traders should consider buying near $327.60 (support zone) with a stop below $326.95. A break above $340.92 (Bollinger Middle Band) could trigger a test of the 30-day MA at $342.82. For the bearish case, short near $332.02 with a target at $315 if the put-heavy options activity materializes.Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Technical Realism

Adobe’s future hinges on one question: Can its AI tools drive enterprise adoption fast enough to offset the bearish technicals? The options market is pricing in a high probability of a test of $315, but the news flow suggests a potential rebound if the AI narrative gains traction. Traders should watch the $327.60–326.95 support zone like a hawk—this is where the battle between bulls and bears will be decided.

In the short term, the $350 call and $315 put are your best bets for directional plays. In the longer term, Adobe’s ability to execute its AI vision will determine whether the stock can shake off its 200-day MA and reclaim bullish momentum. For now, the market is hedging its bets—but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities for those who know where to look.