Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal $300 Put Dominance: A Bearish Play Amid AI Skepticism?

• ADBE trades at $303.27, down 0.38% with RSI at 13.49—extreme oversold territory.
• Put/call open interest ratio at 0.84: heavy bearish positioning below $300, with 4,284 puts at that strike.
• Block trade of 250 puts at $285 (expiring Jan 30) hints at institutional bearishness.

Here’s the thing: ADBE’s options market is screaming red flags. With puts dominating at the $300 level and technicals pointing to a breakdown, this stock is sitting on a pressure valve. Let’s break down why the downside risks outweigh the bullish noise right now.

Bearish Sentiment Locked in the Options Chain

The options market isn’t just bearish—it’s focused. For Friday’s expiration, the $300 put (OI: 4,284) is the most watched strike, with another 4,284 puts at $290. That’s not random. Traders are hedging a potential breakdown below the 200-day moving average ($359.77) or the lower Bollinger Band ($311.45).

But here’s the kicker: the block trade of 250 puts at $285 (ADBE20260130P285) adds weight. That’s a whale-sized bet on a sharp drop before mid-February. Meanwhile, call open interest is scattered at higher strikes ($350–$500), suggesting longs are either hedging or chasing a rebound that hasn’t materialized yet.

News vs. Options: A Tale of Two Narratives

Adobe’s earnings beat and AI acquisition of Semrush should’ve been bullish catalysts. But analysts are piling on—Goldman Sachs’ “Sell” rating and Oppenheimer’s downgrade have investors spooked. The stock’s wedge pattern (pressing against its lower trendline) mirrors the market’s skepticism.

Here’s the rub: AI disruption isn’t just a headline. Apple’s Creator Studio and AI-native tools are real threats. Even with a $6.19B revenue beat, the 18.2x P/E looks stretched if growth slows. The options market isn’t buying Adobe’s “AI-first” pivot—yet.

Actionable Trades: Short-Term Bearish Plays

If you’re betting on the breakdown, here’s how to play it:

• Sell the $300 puts expiring Jan 23 (ADBE20260123P300): With ADBE trading above $301.40 (today’s low), these puts are expensive. A close above $305 tomorrow could leave them worthless.
• Short ADBE near $303.27 with a stop above $308: The 200-day MA at $359.77 is a long-term hurdle, but a break below $300 targets the lower Bollinger Band at $311.45.
• For bulls: Buy the $350 calls expiring Jan 23 (ADBE20260123C350): A rebound above the wedge’s upper trendline ($360+) could reignite optimism, but this is a high-risk, high-reward play.

Volatility on the Horizon

Adobe’s options market is a pressure cooker. The $300 puts and block trades signal a potential 10% drop in the next two weeks. While the company’s AI bets and earnings guidance offer hope, the technical setup and analyst skepticism are louder right now.

Bottom line: This isn’t a “buy the dip” moment. It’s a “hedge the break.” If ADBE cracks $300, the puts will run. If it holds above $305, the bears might pause—but don’t count on it. The AI narrative is still unresolved, and the options market is pricing in a worst-case scenario.