ADM Plummets 4.9% Amid Profit Outlook Cut and Sector Turbulence

Summary
• Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) trades at $57.15, down 4.94% intraday after a sharp selloff from its $58.705 high.
• Earnings report reveals a 93% collapse in core crushing segment profits due to deferred U.S. biofuel policy and trade friction.
• Sector leader Bunge (BG) rallies 3.96%, highlighting divergent performance in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector.

Archer-Daniels-Midland’s stock is in freefall as a 4.94% intraday drop underscores investor panic over its revised 2025 profit outlook. The selloff follows a 93% plunge in core crushing segment profits, compounded by geopolitical trade risks. Meanwhile, sector peers like Bunge (BG) buck the trend, signaling a potential divergence in market sentiment.

Biofuel Policy Delays and Trade Friction Spark Earnings Crisis
Archer-Daniels-Midland’s 4.94% intraday plunge is directly tied to its Q3 earnings report, which revealed a 93% collapse in crushing segment operating profits. The company attributed this to deferred U.S. biofuel policy and persistent international trade friction, both of which have eroded margins in its core commodity processing business. Additionally, a $163 million penalty from its Wilmar equity investment and $174 million in IT software write-downs further pressured earnings. The sharp guidance cut to $3.25–$3.50 adjusted EPS from $4.00 has triggered a liquidity-driven selloff, as investors reassess ADM’s exposure to regulatory and geopolitical volatility.

Food, Beverage & Tobacco Sector Splits as Bunge (BG) Outperforms
While Archer-Daniels-Midland tumbles, sector leader Bunge (BG) surges 3.96% on improved commodity margins and strategic cost discipline. This divergence highlights ADM’s unique vulnerability to biofuel policy delays and trade friction, which are less impactful for diversified peers like BG. The Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector’s mixed performance underscores ADM’s reliance on cyclical commodity markets versus BG’s more balanced exposure to global agribusiness and logistics.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on ADM’s Volatility and Sector Divergence
• RSI: 28.94 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.2255 (bearish)
• 200D MA: $53.2294 (below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: 59.59–63.95 (price near lower band)

ADM’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, but the bearish MACD and 200D MA divergence indicate caution. Key support at $59.59 (lower Bollinger band) and resistance at $63.95 (upper band) define a volatile range. The Nutrition segment’s 24% QoQ profit growth offers a long-term bullish catalyst, but short-term risks remain tied to biofuel policy clarity and trade dynamics.

Top Options Contracts:
• ADM20251114P57 (Put, $57 strike, 2025-11-14):
- IV: 28.48% (moderate)
- Leverage: 54.31%
- Delta: -0.4839 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0275 (modest time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1482 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 6,605 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.425 (max(0, 54.29 - 57)).
This put option offers a high leverage ratio and strong gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a 5% downside move while benefiting from moderate IV and liquidity.

• ADM20251114C57 (Call, $57 strike, 2025-11-14):
- IV: 37.46% (high)
- Leverage: 39.88%
- Delta: 0.5167 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0877 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1126 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 12,012 (highly liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0 (max(0, 54.29 - 57)).
This call option’s high IV and liquidity make it suitable for a short-term bullish rebound trade, though its theta decay requires a swift price reversal.

Action Insight: Aggressive short-sellers may target ADM20251114P57 for a 5% downside scenario, while bulls eye a bounce above $59.59 with ADM20251114C57.

Backtest Archer-Daniels-Midland Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study report. You can expand it to view all tables/plots and drill down into any individual -5 % plunge that occurred in ADM since 2022-01-01.Key takeaways (summary):• Eleven trading days met the −5 % cut-off. • The pattern is mean-reverting: by day 10 the cumulative average excess return is +3.3 % with 82 % win-rate and statistical significance. • Gains persist through day 25 (peak +5.7 %), then taper. • No clear negative drift is observed; thus buying the close of a −5 % day and holding ~10–20 sessions has historically yielded superior risk-adjusted payoff.Feel free to explore the module for complete day-by-day metrics and individual event charts.

ADM at Inflection Point: Sector Divergence and Options Volatility Define Path Forward
Archer-Daniels-Midland’s 4.94% selloff reflects acute vulnerability to biofuel policy delays and trade friction, but its Nutrition segment’s resilience offers a long-term counterbalance. The bearish MACD and 200D MA divergence suggest caution, yet oversold RSI levels hint at potential rebounds. Investors should monitor the $59.59 support and $63.95 resistance, while options traders can exploit volatility with the ADM20251114P57 put for downside protection or the ADM20251114C57 call for a swift rebound. Meanwhile, sector leader Bunge (BG)’s 3.96% rally underscores ADM’s unique risks—watch for policy clarity and trade resolution to drive the next move.