ADM Jumps 3.01% On High Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) closed at $62.35 on the most recent trading session (September 16, 2025), posting a gain of 3.01%. This sharp rise, marking the most substantial single-day increase since August 5th, occurred on significantly elevated volume (4.67 million shares), suggesting strong buying interest to reclaim recent losses.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action displays high volatility. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around the $63.25-$64.21 peak in late August, preceding a downtrend. This downtrend encountered clear support near $59.57-$59.91 across multiple sessions in early September, characterized by long lower wicks (hammer-like formations) signaling rejection of lower prices. The most recent large bullish candle (September 16th) closing near its high ($62.35) after a dip below $60 ($59.915) strongly indicates potential reversal momentum. Key resistance now sits firmly at the previous swing high of $62.92-$63.25. Sustained support appears established around $60.50-$60.80, reinforced by repeated tests.
Moving Average Theory
Analysis of key moving averages presents a mixed picture. The current price ($62.35) sits above the 50-day moving average ($59.28), supporting a near-term uptrend. However, it remains below the 100-day MA ($60.80) and 200-day MA ($56.40), suggesting underlying bearish pressure persists in the intermediate and long-term. While the 50-day is above both the 100-day and 200-day, confirming a long-term bullish trend is still intact, the proximity of the 100-day MA makes it a critical resistance level to overcome. A sustained break above the 100-day would be a significantly positive development. The golden cross (50DMA > 200DMA) formed earlier remains supportive long-term.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) currently shows a potential bullish crossover emerging just below the zero line on the daily chart. The histogram has begun ticking upwards from negative territory, suggesting weakening downside momentum. The KDJ oscillator shows K-line (51.20) crossing above the D-line (48.15) from oversold territory (<30), triggering a buy signal. Both oscillators are rising but have not yet entered overbought territory (KDJ >80), leaving room for potential further upside. The MACD crossover attempts amidst price strength add credibility to the recent bullish move.
Bollinger Bands
Price recently bounced sharply off the lower Bollinger Band (20,2) near $59.57 (Sept 10th) and has since accelerated upwards, piercing the middle band ($60.80). This movement indicates a potential reversal from oversold conditions and a shift from consolidation to upward momentum. The bands have started to widen slightly after a period of contraction, suggesting increasing volatility and supporting the breakout thesis. Closing above the middle band strengthens the bullish case. The upper band currently resides near $64.10, defining a potential resistance area ahead.
Volume-Price Relationship
The substantial surge in volume accompanying the 3.01% price jump on September 16th validates the breakout above the $61.60-$62.00 resistance zone that capped prices earlier in the month. This high-volume confirmation significantly strengthens the recent bullish move. Prior distribution during the August pullback (notably high volume on down days like Aug 26th, Sept 2nd & Sept 8th) contrasts with the accumulation signified by the recent spike. However, the overall trend of declining average volume since the mid-August peak requires monitoring; sustained bullish momentum ideally needs consistently strong volume above recent averages.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The daily RSI (14-period) calculated from gain/loss averages stands at approximately 64.50, moving sharply upwards from oversold levels near 34 in early September. While currently above 50 (indicating bullish momentum), it is approaching the 'cautious zone' near 70 but remains below traditional overbought levels. This placement supports the case for continued near-term upside potential before becoming potentially overextended. The RSI's upward trajectory aligns positively with the recent price surge.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant decline from the August 25th peak of $64.21 to the September 10th low of $59.57 reveals critical retracement levels. The 38.2% retracement sits near $61.40, a level briefly exceeded in recent sessions. The 50% level is $61.89, just below the current close, and the 61.8% level lies at $62.36 – aligning precisely with the Sept 16th close. This makes $62.36 a crucial resistance point tested today. A decisive break above targets the 78.6% level near $63.71. Downside support via Fibonacci is clustered around $60.36 (23.6%) and more strongly at the recent $59.57 low. Confluence exists here as this low aligns with Bollinger Band support.
Confluence and Divergence
Bullish Confluence: The high-volume breakout above $62, the close at the key 61.8% Fibonacci level ($62.36), a potential bullish MACD crossover below zero, an improving RSI, the strong bounce off the Bollinger lower band, and a KDJ buy signal collectively bolster the near-term bullish case. The psychological $60 level coincides with the recent price low and the 23.6% Fib, creating strong support.
Bearish Caveats & Divergence: The price remains below the significant 100-day MA resistance ($60.80 has now been surpassed intraday/close, watch for confirmation). The longer-term downtrend from August (lower highs/lower lows) hasn't been decisively broken yet; a higher high above $63.25 is needed. There was a minor bearish divergence in August as price made a higher high near $64 while the MACD showed a lower peak. Average volume trends remain somewhat weak since mid-August despite the recent spike. The proximity to the 61.8% Fib resistance is also technically significant.
Neutralizing Factor: The golden cross (50DMA > 200DMA) remains intact, underpinning a neutral-to-bullish long-term bias.
Conclusion
The technical picture for Archer-Daniels-Midland shows a robust bullish reversal unfolding in the immediate term, decisively confirmed by the high-volume surge on September 16th reclaiming key moving averages (50DMA) and testing the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Momentum oscillators support this upward thrust. However, overhead resistance is significant at the 100-day MA ($60.80 - now breached but needs confirmation) and the recent swing high around $63.25. The bearish divergence in August, persistent volume concerns beyond the recent spike, and proximity to major Fib resistance ($62.36) suggest that while momentum favors near-term continuation towards $63.25-$63.70, vigilance is required. A close below the $60.50-$61.00 support zone would invalidate the immediate bullish scenario. The long-term trend, defined by the 50DMA above the 200DMA, remains technically constructive. The $60-$61 support zone and $62.36-$63.25 resistance band are critical technical battlegrounds for the coming sessions.