Adjusted Gains, Share Losses: Decoding International Paper's Q1 Results

International Paper (IP) reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 24, 2025, with mixed results that left investors conflicted. While adjusted earnings and revenue rose modestly, the company missed both top- and bottom-line expectations, sending shares into a post-announcement slump. Despite strategic progress highlighted in the report, the market’s reaction underscores lingering concerns about execution risks, integration challenges, and macroeconomic pressures.

Ask Aime: What's the outlook for the stock market after IP's earnings report?

Earnings Snapshot: Adjusted Gains, GAAP Losses

The quarter saw international paper post a net loss of $105 million ($0.24 per diluted share), significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.38 per share. However, adjusted operating earnings rose to $0.23 per share, driven by cost-cutting and margin improvements in certain segments. Revenue totaled $5.9 billion, falling short of the $6.61 billion estimate. Key drivers of the miss included:
- A $271 million pre-tax charge for the closure of its Red River containerboard mill.
- Weaker-than-expected demand in North America, where the newly acquired DS Smith business contributed a $9 million operating loss.
- Elevated transformation costs tied to the DS Smith merger, totaling $670 million for the quarter.

Stock Performance: Volatility Amid Disappointment

Shares initially rallied on April 24, closing up 1.88% at $47.63, buoyed by adjusted results and management’s emphasis on long-term growth. However, the optimism faded the following day as investors focused on the GAAP loss and cash flow struggles. By April 25, the stock had retreated to $47.35, reflecting skepticism about near-term profitability.

Over the prior month, IP had already underperformed peers, declining 11%—far worse than the 1.3% average drop in the industrial packaging sector. This pre-earnings weakness suggests investors had already priced in some disappointment, setting the stage for a muted rebound.

Segment Performance: Strengths and Struggles

• Packaging Solutions North America: Operating profit fell to $142 million, down from $228 million in Q4 2024, as the DS Smith integration and softer demand weighed.
• Packaging Solutions EMEA: Improved to $46 million, up from $19 million in the prior quarter, benefiting from cost discipline and European market recovery.
• Global Cellulose Fibers: Returned to profit at $17 million, reversing a $250 million loss in Q4 2024, as pulp prices stabilized.

Cash Flow and Strategic Priorities

The company’s free cash flow turned negative (-$618 million), with operations using $288 million in cash due to one-time charges and DS Smith-related expenses. Management emphasized its 80/20 customer focus initiative, prioritizing high-margin clients, and reaffirmed its $27 billion 2025 revenue target. However, investors remain wary of the timeline for realizing synergies from the $8.7 billion DS Smith merger.

Analyst Outlook: Mixed Signals

Analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with six “Strong Buy” ratings and one “Strong Sell.” The average price target of $58.70 implies a 24% upside from recent levels, reflecting faith in long-term plans. Yet, near-term risks persist:
- Execution challenges: Integrating DS Smith’s 140 facilities without disrupting customers remains a hurdle.
- Macroeconomic pressures: Rising airport fees and inflation could strain unit costs, which rose 2.1% year-over-year.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for International Paper?

International Paper’s Q1 results highlight the tension between strategic ambition and short-term execution. While adjusted metrics show progress—particularly in EMEA and pulp—investors are penalizing the company for missing key targets and enduring integration costs. The stock’s post-earnings dip underscores that confidence hinges on closing plants efficiently, stabilizing North American demand, and proving synergies can outweigh one-time charges.

With a $58.70 price target still on the table and a 20.8% 52-week gain, the stock remains in recovery mode. However, until IP consistently beats estimates and improves cash flow, skepticism will linger.

The path forward is clear: deliver on the $27 billion revenue goal, reduce debt, and demonstrate that operational efficiency can offset macro headwinds. Until then, IP’s shares may remain stuck in neutral.