ADBE Options Signal Bullish Bias at $365–$370 as AI Partnership Fuels Near-Term Optimism

• Adobe’s Q4 earnings beat estimates, but mixed guidance and analyst downgrades created a tug-of-war in sentiment.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $365–$370, with a put/call ratio of 0.88 hinting at near-term bullish positioning.
• A new AI partnership with Runway and Firefly’s $125M+ Q3 revenue could drive a breakout above $355.72 resistance.

Adobe’s stock is dancing on a tightrope right now. Strong earnings, AI-driven growth, and a bullish options setup are pulling it higher—but soft guidance and analyst caution are keeping one foot anchored. Here’s how to navigate the tension.

Calls Dominate at $365–$370, Suggesting a Bullish Playbook

Options market participants are clearly leaning in. This Friday’s chain shows 1,063 open interest at the $365 call and 880 at $370—strikes that sit 3–4% above today’s price. That’s not just noise; it’s a vote of confidence in Adobe’s ability to push past its 30-day support/resistance range of $351.38–$355.72. The put/call ratio of 0.88 (calls outweighing puts) reinforces this bias, though the lack of block trades means big money isn’t yet all-in. The risk? If AI monetization stumbles or earnings momentum falters, those calls could turn into a short-term trap.

AI Partnerships and Earnings Beat: Fuel for the Fire

Adobe’s recent partnership with Runway and Firefly’s revenue surge ($125M+ in Q3) are the sparks here. The market is pricing in a future where AI tools dominate creative workflows, and Adobe’s $6.19B Q4 revenue proves it’s not just a tech experiment—it’s a cash engine. But here’s the catch: Analysts like Morgan Stanley cutting their price target to $425 (from $450) and Boston Trust Walden trimming its stake by 13.8% show skepticism about scaling AI profits. The key question isn’t if Adobe can innovate—it’s how fast it can turn Firefly and Acrobat AI into consistent revenue streams against rivals like Canva.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Stock for the Patient

For options traders, the ADBE20260102C365 and ADBE20260102C370 calls are the most compelling. If Adobe cracks $355.72 (its 30-day resistance), these strikes could see explosive gains before Friday’s expiry. For next Friday’s chain, the ADBE20260109C355 offers a safer play with a tighter bid-ask spread. Stock buyers should eye $351.38 as a key support level—if it holds, a breakout above $355.72 could target $363 (aligning with the 200-day moving average). A breakdown below $345.80 (Bollinger Middle Band) would signal caution.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Execution Risks

Adobe’s story is a classic growth-at-a-price dilemma. The options market is betting on a $365+ finish by early January, but earnings guidance and analyst skepticism mean the ride won’t be smooth. If the AI partnership with Runway accelerates adoption, the stock could surprise to the upside. But if monetization slows or competition tightens, the $340–$345 puts (with 871–825 OI) might see action. Either way, the next two weeks will test whether Adobe’s AI ambitions can translate into sustained momentum—or if this is just a short-lived rally.