ADBE Options Signal $310 Put Contingency: Bearish Setup with 12% Downside Potential as Technicals Deteriorate

• ADBE trades at $318.13, down 0.45% from $319.55
• RSI at 36.99 (oversold) but price remains below all major moving averages
• Put/call open interest ratio at 0.84, showing 16% more calls than puts

Adobe’s options market is painting a clear bearish picture as technical indicators align with a potential breakdown. The stock’s 0.45% intraday drop has traders eyeing the $310 put wall while calls at $340+ show fading optimism. Here’s what the data tells us about the $318 crossroads.

The $310 Put Wall and Fading Bullish Hopes

Options open interest reveals a striking imbalance: 1,353 contracts at the $340 call (Nov 28 expiry) versus 1,153 puts at $310. This $30 spread between key call/put strikes suggests investors are hedging against a sharp drop while clinging to faint hopes of a rebound. The $340 call is 4.1% out of the money, yet it dwarfs the next call strike’s 1,320 contracts at $350. Meanwhile, puts at $310 and $300 (1,153 and 970 OI) form a 12% downside contingency plan. No block trades complicate this read—this is pure retail and institutional positioning.

Silent News, Noisy Charts

With no recent Adobe-specific headlines to anchor sentiment, the market is defaulting to technicals. The RSI at 37 and MACD divergence scream oversold conditions, but price remains 8.5% below the 200DMA at $374.27. Think of it like a compressed spring: the Bollinger Bands show price is 8% below the middle band, but without a catalyst to break the $313.25 support level, the spring stays coiled. This quiet vacuum lets options data become the de facto narrative.

Trade Ideas: Puts for Protection, Calls for Contingency

For options traders, the ADBE Nov 28 310P ($310 put expiring Friday) offers a 12% downside hedge if support breaks. At $318.13, this put would need a $313.25 close to breakeven—right at the lower Bollinger Band. Aggressive traders might also buy the ADBE Nov 28 300P (970 OI) for a 15% move, but it’s riskier. For calls, the ADBE Nov 28 340C (1,353 OI) is a 4.1% OTM play if the stock rallies above $329.32 (middle Bollinger Band).

Stock buyers should wait for a test of $313.25 support. If it holds, consider entries near $313 with a stop below $310. A break below $310 could target $300–$295, where the put OI wall lives. For a bullish twist, a call spread using ADBE Nov 5 320C (387 OI) and 332.5C (811 OI) could capture a rebound if the stock closes above $329.32.

Volatility on the Horizon

Adobe’s chart is at a crossroads. The RSI’s oversold reading and bearish MACD suggest a rebound is possible, but the 8.5% gap to the 200DMA is a psychological hurdle. The options market has priced in a 12–15% downside risk, with $310 as the critical inflection point. Traders should treat this as a high-probability short-term bear play with defined risk, while longer-term investors might wait for a clearer breakout above $329.32 before re-entering bullish bets.