Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Surges 13% on Q3 Earnings and Guidance Hike – Is This the Start of a Biotech Breakout?

Summary
• Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) rockets 13.05% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $18.485
• Q3 revenue guidance raised to $202–207M, driven by clonoSEQ MRD testing growth
• Turnover surges to 2.66M shares, signaling strong institutional interest

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, surging 13.05% to $18.45 as of 5:42 PM ET. The stock’s meteoric rise follows a Q3 earnings report that exceeded expectations, with management raising full-year guidance. This surge has pushed ADPT to its 52-week high, fueled by robust performance in its minimal residual disease (MRD) testing business and strategic pricing power. The stock’s volatility and volume suggest a pivotal moment for the biotech sector.

Q3 Earnings and Guidance Hike Drive ADPT's 13% Surge
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 13.05% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q3 2025 earnings report, which revealed a 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $52.3M, driven by clonoSEQ MRD testing adoption. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $202–207M, citing improved payer reimbursement and clinical adoption in hematological cancers. Analysts highlight the MRD segment’s dominance as the primary catalyst, with clonoSEQ now integrated into Flatiron Health’s OncoEMR platform, expanding access for 4,500 clinicians. The stock’s sharp move reflects optimism around sustained momentum in MRD testing, despite ongoing unprofitability.

Biotech Sector Rally Lifts ADPT as AMGN Hits 2.57% Gains
The biotechnology sector is broadly positive, with Amgen (AMGN) rising 2.57% on strong earnings. However, ADPT’s 13.05% surge far outpaces sector peers, reflecting its unique positioning in MRD testing. While AMGN’s gains stem from blockbuster drug sales, ADPT’s rally is driven by transformative clinical adoption of clonoSEQ, which is now reimbursed for mantle cell lymphoma surveillance. This divergence underscores ADPT’s potential to outperform as MRD testing becomes a standard of care in oncology.

Options Playbook: Leveraging ADPT’s Volatility with High-Gamma Contracts
• 200-day MA: $11.10 (far below current price)
• RSI: 43.16 (neutral, suggesting potential for further upside)
• MACD: -0.255 (bearish), but histogram at -0.1046 indicates short-term bullish momentum
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $18.45 near upper band ($18.56), suggesting overbought conditions

ADPT’s technicals present a high-risk, high-reward setup. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA and within a tight Bollinger Band range, indicating short-term volatility. RSI neutrality suggests no immediate overbought/oversold signals, while MACD divergence hints at potential for a breakout. Key levels to watch: $18.56 (resistance) and $15.77 (20-day MA support).

Top Options Contracts:
• ADPT20251219C17.5 (Call, $17.5 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 64.11% (elevated, reflecting market uncertainty)
- Delta: 0.661 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0357 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1094 (strong sensitivity to price acceleration)
- Turnover: 835 (liquid)
- Leverage: 9.79%
- Payoff at 5% upside ($19.37): $1.87/share
- Why it stands out: High gamma and delta make this contract ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity ensuring smooth entry/exit.

• ADPT20260116C22.5 (Call, $22.5 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 60.92% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.2526 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0154 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0718 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,600 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 30.83%
- Payoff at 5% upside ($19.37): -$3.13/share (out-of-the-money)
- Why it stands out: Long-dated, low theta makes it suitable for a bullish mid-term outlook, with high turnover ensuring tradeability.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize ADPT20251219C17.5 for a short-term breakout above $18.56. If ADPT consolidates near $18.45, the ADPT20260116C22.5 offers a safer, longer-term play on sustained MRD growth.

Backtest Adaptive Stock Performance
Key findings• From 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-21 the stock recorded 16 sessions where its intraday gain reached or exceeded +13 %. • On average the share price tended to give back part of the surge: the cumulative event return stayed negative through most of the 30-day window and never became statistically positive. • The worst stretch was the 2-3 trading-day horizon (≈ -4 % to -6 % vs. benchmark). • No clear positive drift is observed even after a full month, indicating that a +13 % one-day jump has not been a reliable bullish signal during this period.For an interactive view of the detailed event-study curves and daily win-rate table, please open the module below.Notes on defaults1. Price type set to “close” – the industry standard for event studies and consistent with available daily return data. 2. Analysis window fixed at 30 trading days to capture short- to medium-term post-event behaviour.

ADPT’s 13% Surge: A Biotech Inflection Point or Overextended Rally?
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 13.05% surge reflects a pivotal moment for the MRD testing market, but sustainability depends on maintaining clinical adoption and pricing power. Key signals to monitor: a breakout above $18.56 (52-week high) to confirm momentum, and AMGN’s 2.57% gains as a sector benchmark. Investors should consider ADPT20251219C17.5 for a short-term rally or ADPT20260116C22.5 for a longer-term bet. If the stock fails to hold $15.77 (20-day MA), a retest of $16.18 (intraday low) could trigger profit-taking. Action Step: Buy ADPT20251219C17.5 if $18.56 is breached, or short-term traders can scalp volatility near $18.45.