Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Surges 13.6% on Q3 Momentum – Is This the Start of a Biotech Renaissance?

Summary
• Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) surges 13.6% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $18.58
• Q3 results show record revenue growth in MRD testing, with full-year guidance raised to $202–$207M
• Options chain sees explosive activity in December 2025 $20 calls and January 2026 $22.5 calls

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, driven by robust Q3 results and a strategic pivot in its MRD testing business. The stock’s 13.6% surge to $18.545—matching its 52-week high—has ignited options trading frenzy, with key contracts showing leveraged volatility. This move aligns with broader biotech sector momentum, as investors bet on clinical adoption and pricing power in hematological cancer diagnostics.

Q3 Earnings & Guidance Hike Fuel ADPT's Record Rally
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 13.6% intraday surge stems from its Q3 2025 results, which revealed a 161% year-to-date return and a raised full-year revenue forecast for its MRD testing segment. Management cited 'sustained momentum' in clonoSEQ adoption, driven by payer reimbursement improvements and expanded integration into electronic medical records (EMRs). The guidance hike to $202–$207M for MRD revenue underscores confidence in clinical adoption, while the stock’s 13.6% move reflects optimism around recurring revenue potential and margin expansion. Analysts at Simply Wall St note this validates the core investment thesis: MRD as a growth engine despite ongoing company-wide losses.

Biotech Sector Gains Momentum as Thermo Fisher (TMO) Leads Rally
The broader biotech sector is gaining traction, with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) rising 2.1% as a proxy for industry strength. Adaptive’s 13.6% move outpaces the sector’s average, reflecting its niche focus on MRD testing. While TMO’s gains highlight demand for lab infrastructure and diagnostics, ADPT’s rally is fueled by clinical adoption and pricing power in a specialized segment. This divergence suggests ADPT’s momentum is stock-specific, driven by its clonoSEQ platform’s integration into cancer care rather than broad sector tailwinds.

Options Playbook: ADPT20251219C20 & ADPT20260116C22.5 Lead the Charge
• RSI: 43.16 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.255 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.151 (neutral), Histogram: -0.105 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $18.56 (current price), Middle $15.77, Lower $12.98
• 200D MA: $11.10 (far below)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $16.84–$16.92, 200D $7.34–$7.56

Adaptive’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout, with RSI at oversold levels and price near the upper Bollinger Band. The 200D MA is a distant support, indicating a strong trend. Two options stand out for leveraged exposure:

• ADPT20251219C20
- Strike: $20, Expiration: 2025-12-19, IV: 70.09%, Leverage: 19.60%, Delta: 0.403, Theta: -0.0338, Gamma: 0.105, Turnover: 9,180
- IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility reflects market anticipation of further moves
- Leverage: 19.6% amplifies gains if the stock continues upward
- Delta: 0.403 suggests moderate sensitivity to price changes
- Theta: -0.0338 indicates time decay is manageable for a short-term play
- Gamma: 0.105 means delta will increase as the stock rises, enhancing leverage
- Turnover: 9,180 confirms liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff (5% upside): $18.545 → $19.47, Profit: $0.47 per contract
- Why it stands out: High leverage and liquidity make this ideal for a short-term bullish bet

• ADPT20260116C22.5
- Strike: $22.5, Expiration: 2026-01-16, IV: 59.58%, Leverage: 31.04%, Delta: 0.255, Theta: -0.0153, Gamma: 0.073, Turnover: 3,600
- IV: Mid-range volatility supports a balanced risk-reward profile
- Leverage: 31.04% offers amplified gains for a mid-term hold
- Delta: 0.255 indicates lower sensitivity but potential for gamma-driven acceleration
- Theta: -0.0153 shows minimal time decay, suitable for a longer hold
- Gamma: 0.073 means delta will rise as the stock moves, enhancing leverage
- Turnover: 3,600 ensures sufficient liquidity
- Payoff (5% upside): $18.545 → $19.47, Profit: -$3.03 per contract (out-of-the-money)
- Why it stands out: Mid-term exposure with lower time decay, ideal for a cautious bullish stance

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize ADPT20251219C20 for immediate leverage, while ADPT20260116C22.5 suits a more conservative, mid-term approach. Both contracts benefit from ADPT’s current momentum and elevated IV.

Backtest Adaptive Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study panel where you can explore how ADPT behaved after each ≥ 14 % intraday surge since 2022.Key takeaways (summary):• Only 13 qualifying surges occurred during the period. • Over the next 1–5 trading days the stock underperformed, with a -2.4 % average 1-day drop and a -1.36 % average 5-day drop. • None of the horizons up to 30 days produced a statistically significant positive excess return; several short-term windows showed weakly negative significance (e.g., -4.26 % at 2-days). • Win-rates gradually improved beyond day-20, but returns remained close to flat versus the benchmark.Interpretation:A 14 %+ intraday spike in ADPT has not been a reliable bullish setup historically; momentum fades in the first week and mean-reversion dominates. Traders may consider caution or short-term fade strategies rather than chasing the surge.You can interact with the panel for full statistics by horizon.

ADPT's Bullish Momentum – Time to Ride the Biotech Wave?
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 13.6% surge is a testament to its MRD testing business’s resilience and pricing power. With RSI at oversold levels and price near the upper Bollinger Band, the technicals suggest a continuation of the rally. The ADPT20251219C20 call option offers the most immediate leverage, while the ADPT20260116C22.5 provides a mid-term hedge. Investors should monitor the 200D MA at $11.10 as a critical support level. Meanwhile, Thermo Fisher (TMO)’s 2.1% rise underscores broader biotech strength, but ADPT’s move is driven by its unique MRD adoption story. Act now: Buy ADPT20251219C20 for a short-term play or ADPT20260116C22.5 for a cautious, mid-term bet.