Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) shares surge 7.27% on Q2 2025 earnings, revenue jumps 36.3% to $49.94M

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) shares surged 7.27% on Wednesday, extending a five-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 22.46%. The stock touched its highest level since August 2025, with an intraday rise of 10.52%, driven by momentum from recent earnings and strategic updates. The rally reflects investor confidence in the company’s evolving business model and long-term vision in immune medicine.

The strategy of buying ADPT shares after they reach a recent high and selling them one week later delivered moderate returns but underperformed the benchmark significantly. The strategy’s CAGR was 9.02%, trailing the benchmark by 38.69%. With a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.12, the strategy had minimal risk but lacked sharp performance, as indicated by its 24.18% return versus the benchmark's 62.86%.

The stock’s performance aligns with Adaptive’s Q2 2025 earnings report, which exceeded expectations. Revenue grew 36.3% year-over-year to $49.94 million, fueled by strong demand for its Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) diagnostic tests. While the company reported a net loss of $37.4 million, the per-share deficit narrowed from -$0.31 to -$0.17 compared to the same period in 2024, signaling improved cost management and monetization of its core technology.

Analysts have upgraded ADPT following the results, with JPMorgan and Piper Sandler raising price targets to $14 and $13, respectively. The company also revised its 2025 MRD revenue guidance upward to $190–200 million, citing robust payer relationships and clinical adoption of its clonoSEQ® test. Institutional investors have amplified their stakes, with firms like Ameriprise Financial and Voya Investment Management significantly increasing holdings, underscoring confidence in the firm’s growth trajectory.

Adaptive’s strategic focus on immune medicine positions it at the forefront of a high-growth sector. Collaborations with partners like Genentech and advancements in immunosequencing technology highlight its potential to expand into new therapeutic areas. However, challenges remain, including ongoing unprofitability and regulatory hurdles. The company aims to achieve EBITDA positivity by late 2025, a critical milestone for long-term credibility.

While the stock’s current price of $11.69 lags the $12.38 consensus target, the trajectory of recent upgrades and institutional backing suggests optimism about Adaptive’s ability to deliver on its ambitious revenue and earnings projections by 2028. Investors will closely watch execution against these goals, particularly in scaling MRD diagnostics and navigating competitive dynamics in the biotech landscape.