Adapt or Stagnate: Investing in CEOs Who Master AI and Agility in Volatile Markets

The business world is in the throes of a tectonic shift. CEOs are no longer judged solely by short-term earnings but by their ability to navigate volatility through agility and AI integration. Companies led by rigid managers clinging to outdated strategies are faltering, while those with visionary leaders are thriving. This article identifies two top picks for investors seeking exposure to CEOs who prioritize adaptability, AI-driven innovation, and organizational resilience—while sounding a warning about firms trapped in outdated management models.

Why Agility and AI Are Now Non-Negotiable

The VUCA era (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) has made traditional management styles obsolete. CEOs must now:
1. Embrace AI as a strategic lever: Automate decisions, predict disruptions, and reallocate resources in real time.
2. Build adaptive cultures: Foster collaboration, continuous learning, and risk-taking.
3. Prioritize data-driven resilience: Invest in unified data systems to avoid silos that cripple agility.

Failure to adapt comes with steep costs. The 2025 CEO Study warns that 50% of firms still face disconnected technology systems, hindering AI's potential, while only 52% of generative AI projects deliver value beyond cost savings. Meanwhile, leaders who master agility and AI are creating moats in their industries.

Case Study 1: Applied Materials (AMAT) – The Semiconductor Titan Reengineering Itself

Why AMAT is a top pick:
- CEO leadership: Gary Dickerson and his team are redefining semiconductor innovation. Q2 2025 revenue hit $7.1 billion, up 7% YoY, with AI-driven demand fueling growth in Semiconductor Systems (up 7% to $5.26 billion).
- AI integration: R&D investments ($1.57 billion in Q2) are pouring into next-gen technologies like GAAFET transistors (for 3nm chips) and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) systems. These advancements are critical for AI workloads in cloud computing and autonomous systems.
- Geopolitical agility: Despite a 25% drop in China revenue, AMAT diversified into Taiwan (28% of sales) and Korea (22%), proving supply chain resilience.

Investment thesis: AMAT trades at a P/S ratio of 4.2x, a discount to peers like ASML (9.5x) and Lam Research (6.8x). With a $203.74 average price target (35% upside) and eight consecutive EPS beats, this is a buy for investors betting on the AI semiconductor boom.

Historical context: When AMAT's earnings exceeded estimates, the stock delivered an average return of 38.7% over the subsequent 20 trading days from 2020 to 2025. While this outperformed its benchmark, the strategy faced a maximum drawdown of -46.79%, underscoring the importance of risk management. The low Sharpe ratio of 0.26 suggests acceptable risk-adjusted returns during these periods.

Case Study 2: Jabil (JBL) – Supply Chain Mastery Meets AI-Driven Growth

Why JBL outperforms:
- CEO vision: CEO Mark Schwab and his leadership team are retooling manufacturing for AI's future. Q2 revenue hit $6.7 billion, with Intelligent Infrastructure (40% of revenue) surging 18% YoY.
- AI adoption: JBL's $7.5 billion AI revenue target by 2025 is underpinned by partnerships in silicon photonics and autonomous robotics. Its Digital Teammate platform (via Badger Technologies) streamlines workflows, cutting costs while boosting innovation.
- Global agility: A 100-facility footprint across 30 countries, plus 20% U.S.-based production, mitigates geopolitical risks. Free cash flow hit $261 million in Q2, reinforcing financial strength.

Investment thesis: JBL trades at a P/E of 13.99x, 40% below its sector average. Analysts project a $85 price target (26% upside from current levels) based on its undervalued cash flow and AI-driven growth. This is a strong buy for investors seeking supply chain resilience and tech transformation.

Historical context: JBL's performance under the same strategy was less favorable, averaging a -20.2% return during the period. The strategy faced a maximum drawdown of -40.5%, and its negative Sharpe ratio (-0.71) indicates poor risk-adjusted returns. Despite this, JBL's current undervalued P/E and AI-driven growth trajectory remain compelling for long-term investors.

Warning: Rigid Management Structures Are a Red Flag

Not all CEOs are up to the task. Avoid companies with:
- Fragmented tech systems: 50% of firms still struggle with siloed data, per the 2025 CEO Study.
- Short-term ROI fixation: Only 52% of AI projects deliver value beyond cost cuts. Leaders focused on quick wins (not long-term agility) will falter.
- Resistance to cultural change: Teams lacking continuous learning and risk tolerance become innovation dead zones.

Conclusion: Allocate to Adaptive Leaders, Avoid the Fragile

The era of “set it and forget it” management is over. Investors must back CEOs who:
- Bet on AI as a strategic core, not a cost center.
- Build data-driven, globally agile systems.
- Empower teams to experiment without fear of failure.

Top picks:
1. Applied Materials (AMAT) – Buy at current levels for AI semiconductor dominance.
2. Jabil (JBL) – Strong buy for supply chain agility and AI-enabled manufacturing.

Avoid: Firms with siloed tech, rigid leadership, or a myopic focus on short-term gains. The market's winners will be those who adapt fastest—and the CEOs steering them deserve your capital.